3909 Reche Rd Spc 116

Fallbrook, CA 92028

$199,900B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,923/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $928/mo
• Annual: $11,136/yr
• Cap rate: 11.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.90%
• DSCR: 1.89
• 1% rule: 1.46%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $928 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,364 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fallbrook Union High (suburban): math 32% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #183 of 517 in CA (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Live Oak Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 644 students, 73% FRL); James E. Potter Intermediate (729 students, 84% FRL); Fallbrook High (math 35% / reading 59%, grade D-, #389 of 1,170 statewide, top 35%, 1,924 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $200k implies a 479% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 2.3% in Fallbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.