3909 Reche Rd Spc 116 · Fallbrook, CA 92028

$199,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 46 Days on market

Built 1969 Est $228k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 3909 Reche Rd, Space 116 — a charming, well-maintained home tucked away in a quiet, family-friendly all-ages park. This spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home also offers an optional 3rd bedroom, perfect for a home office or guest space. Enjoy an open, inviting layout with a large living room and a generous kitchen, ideal for gatherings. The home features NO carpet, with laminate flooring throughout and brand-new flooring in the bedrooms. If you love spending time outdoors, you’ll appreciate the generously sized private side yard perfect for relaxing or hosting family and friends for any occasion. The home also offers an attached carport with parking for up to four permi

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Attached carport
• Shuffleboard room

Tags

• PRIVATE SIDE YARD
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• MATURE VALLEY OAK TREES
• POOL AND JACUZZI
• SHUFFLEBOARD ROOM
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Valley Oaks Park community; Lot held as common interest
• HOA & community: Community trash service; Cable TV included in association fees; Community amenities: Pool, Clubhouse, Fitness Center

Exterior

• Parking: Attached tandem parking; Total of 5 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Shingle roof; No one above or below (no shared units above/below)
• Exterior features: Partial fencing (chain link and wood); Community pool; Community spa/hot tub; Clubhouse; Fitness center

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher, Microwave, Refrigerator, Gas cooktop, Range, Oven
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Microwave, Refrigerator, Gas cooktop, Range, Oven; Vinyl flooring; Wall/window cooling units; Electric heating; Has a view

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $928 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 2.3% in Fallbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,364 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Fallbrook Union High (suburban): math 32% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #183 of 517 in CA (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 344 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $200k implies a 479% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.90%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,096
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3909 Reche Rd #52	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,152 (0%)	8mo	$115,000	$100	92
3909 Reche Rd #194	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,231 (+7%)	7mo	$250,000	$203	78
3909 Reche #65	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,160 (+1%)	23mo	$229,630	$198	75
3909 Reche Rd #183	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	14mo	$270,000	$208	62
3909 Reche Rd #214	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	15mo	$230,000	$177	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $18,189
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $59,016
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92028

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 344
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,923 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $928

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,066	-5% $997	+0% $928	+5% $859	+10% $790
Rent	-10% $697	-5% $813	+0% $928	+5% $1,043	+10% $1,159
Rate	-1.0pp $1,029	-0.5pp $979	base $928	+0.5pp $876	+1.0pp $824

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4131 Cyprus Island Ct Fallbrook, CA	2.0	2.0	1432	$3,195	$2.23	0d	1	0.79mi
3043 Ridge Creek Dr Unit Casi Fallbrook, CA	1.0	1.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	0d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   status $199,900 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
10. 2026-04-28
    price $199,900
11. 2026-04-28
    price $189,900
12. 2026-04-07
    listed $199,900 Active
13. 2026-04-05
    historical
14. 2026-02-05
    listed $199,900 Active
15. 2026-02-04
    historical
16. 2026-01-30
    price $199,900
17. 2025-10-31
    listed $215,000 Active
18. 2009-10-09
    soldstatus $34,500
19. 2009-05-09
    listed $39,000
20. 2002-06-17
    soldstatus $52,500
21. 2002-05-08
    listed $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,806
• − Management: −$2,806
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $8,457
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,030
• After-tax cash flow: $9,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fallbrook Union High
• NCES district ID: 0613530
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $56,644
• Composite: 39.17/100
• National rank: #4025
• State rank: #183 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fallbrook

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1364
• US rank: #27057

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 52,227
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 52,227
• Household income: $111,290
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1384.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 21% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -533.50%
• Current HPI: 320.7162
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.35%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+263.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — SDMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $199,900 SDMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $189,900 SDMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $199,900 SDMLS
• 2026-04-05 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $199,900 SDMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $199,900 SDMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $215,000 SDMLS
• 2009-10-09 Sold (MLS) $34,500 CRMLS
• 2009-05-09 Listed $39,000 CRMLS
• 2002-06-17 Sold (MLS) $52,500 CRMLS
• 2002-05-08 Listed $55,000 CRMLS