9641 Marmot Way

Clearlake Riviera, CA 95451

$285,000D-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 266 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,861/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax + insurance: −$317
• HOA: −$12
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-353/mo
• Annual: $-4,237/yr
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.31%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $79,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-353 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (21.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (34.7% below list).
• It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#690 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Kelseyville Unified (town): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,150 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Riviera Elementary (223 students, 60% FRL); Mountain Vista Middle (375 students, 76% FRL); Kelseyville High (math 8% / reading 42%, grade F, #811 of 1,170 statewide, top 70%, 540 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $169k; list at $285k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?