9641 Marmot Way · Clearlake Riviera, CA 95451

$285,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 266 Days on market

Built 1977 6,970 sqft lot $178/sqft · 18% below area Est $349k · 18% under $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you’ve been dreaming about Lake County living without stretching your budget, this is one of those homes that just feels right the moment you arrive. Tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, it offers the kind of peace and privacy that’s getting harder to find — along with views that never get old. Step inside and your eye is immediately drawn to the back of the home, where large windows frame rolling hills, vineyards, and distant mountain ridgelines that shift with the seasons. Mornings are best spent on the front porch, where you’ll catch soft peek-a-boo views of Clear Lake glowing through the trees and enjoy the quiet start to the day. The two-story layout creates a sense of separation that works beautifully for everyday living. The entire lower level is dedicated to the primary suite, giving you a private retreat that feels tucked away from the rest of the home — a place to truly unwind at the end of the day. Just off the backyard, a bonus room adds extra flexibility and can easily become a home office, gym, art studio, or hobby space. Practical touches like a two-car garage and indoor laundry make daily life easy, while the setting does the rest. With deer grazing nearby and wild turkeys occasionally passing through, this home captures that relaxed, country feel Lake County is known for. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or searching for a weekend escape, this home offers incredible value — combining views, privacy, and a setting that people truly fall in love with.

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Two-story design
• Primary suite

Tags

• PANORAMIC VIEWS
• PEEK-A-BOO VIEWS
• TWO-STORY DESIGN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-353 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (21.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (34.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#690 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Kelseyville Unified (town): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,150 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Riviera Elementary (223 students, 60% FRL); Mountain Vista Middle (375 students, 76% FRL); Kelseyville High (math 8% / reading 42%, grade F, #811 of 1,170 statewide, top 70%, 540 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $169k; list at $285k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,132 (34.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.31%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,836
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -18.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9663 Marmot Way	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,589 (-1%)	4mo	$339,900	$214	87
9559 Tenaya Way	0.15mi	2/1.5	1,520 (-5%)	2mo	$262,900	$173	83
9768 Marmot Way	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,681 (+5%)	13mo	$329,000	$196	67
9723 Fairway Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,467 (-8%)	8mo	$329,999	$225	59
5596 Vista Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,406 (-12%)	14mo	$369,000	$262	58
9082 Hopi Ct	0.61mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,614 (+1%)	6mo	$180,000	$112	56
10018 El Capitan Way	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,500 (-6%)	4mo	$338,000	$225	55
10015 Emerald Dr	0.48mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,730 (+8%)	3mo	$349,000	$202	53
4902 Tuolumne	0.67mi	2/2.5	1,695 (+6%)	3mo	$380,000	$224	52
5281 Sierra Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,431 (-11%)	12mo	$362,695	$253	37
9802 Sequoia Rd	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,382 (-14%)	10mo	$345,000	$250	32
5563 Chinook Dr	0.65mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,801 (+13%)	11mo	$383,250	$213	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-68,730
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-89,055
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95451

• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,861 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,378/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,308

Max offer price $222,631

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-192	-5% $-272	+0% $-353	+5% $-434	+10% $-514
Rent	-10% $-500	-5% $-427	+0% $-353	+5% $-280	+10% $-206
Rate	-1.0pp $-210	-0.5pp $-281	base $-353	+0.5pp $-427	+1.0pp $-502

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10340 Hok Has Ha Ln Unit B Kelseyville, CA	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,550	$1.35	45d	1	0.90mi
9247 Fairway Dr Kelseyville, CA	2.0	3.0	1560	$1,850	$1.19	45d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $285,000 Active 266 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,000 Active 265 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $285,000 Active 263 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 262 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 261 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 260 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 259 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $285,000 Active 257 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $285,000 Active 256 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $285,000 Active 253 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,000 Active 252 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 251 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 250 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 247 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 246 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 245 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 244 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $285,000 Active 243 DOM
19. 2025-10-26
    price $285,000 1558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1558 chars)

    If you’ve been dreaming about Lake County living without stretching your budget, this is one of those homes that just feels right the moment you arrive. Tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, it offers the kind of peace and privacy that’s getting harder to find — along with views that never get old. Step inside and your eye is immediately drawn to the back of the home, where large windows frame rolling hills, vineyards, and distant mountain ridgelines that shift with the seasons. Mornings are best spent on the front porch, where you’ll catch soft peek-a-boo views of Clear Lake glowing through the trees and enjoy the quiet start to the day. The two-story layout creates a sense of separation that works beautifully for everyday living. The entire lower level is dedicated to the primary suite, giving you a private retreat that feels tucked away from the rest of the home — a place to truly unwind at the end of the day. Just off the backyard, a bonus room adds extra flexibility and can easily become a home office, gym, art studio, or hobby space. Practical touches like a two-car garage and indoor laundry make daily life easy, while the setting does the rest. With deer grazing nearby and wild turkeys occasionally passing through, this home captures that relaxed, country feel Lake County is known for. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or searching for a weekend escape, this home offers incredible value — combining views, privacy, and a setting that people truly fall in love with.

20. 2025-09-29
    listed $299,000 Active 1558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1558 chars)

    If you’ve been dreaming about Lake County living without stretching your budget, this is one of those homes that just feels right the moment you arrive. Tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, it offers the kind of peace and privacy that’s getting harder to find — along with views that never get old. Step inside and your eye is immediately drawn to the back of the home, where large windows frame rolling hills, vineyards, and distant mountain ridgelines that shift with the seasons. Mornings are best spent on the front porch, where you’ll catch soft peek-a-boo views of Clear Lake glowing through the trees and enjoy the quiet start to the day. The two-story layout creates a sense of separation that works beautifully for everyday living. The entire lower level is dedicated to the primary suite, giving you a private retreat that feels tucked away from the rest of the home — a place to truly unwind at the end of the day. Just off the backyard, a bonus room adds extra flexibility and can easily become a home office, gym, art studio, or hobby space. Practical touches like a two-car garage and indoor laundry make daily life easy, while the setting does the rest. With deer grazing nearby and wild turkeys occasionally passing through, this home captures that relaxed, country feel Lake County is known for. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or searching for a weekend escape, this home offers incredible value — combining views, privacy, and a setting that people truly fall in love with.

21. 2025-09-29
    historical

    Show marketing remark (1558 chars)

    If you’ve been dreaming about Lake County living without stretching your budget, this is one of those homes that just feels right the moment you arrive. Tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, it offers the kind of peace and privacy that’s getting harder to find — along with views that never get old. Step inside and your eye is immediately drawn to the back of the home, where large windows frame rolling hills, vineyards, and distant mountain ridgelines that shift with the seasons. Mornings are best spent on the front porch, where you’ll catch soft peek-a-boo views of Clear Lake glowing through the trees and enjoy the quiet start to the day. The two-story layout creates a sense of separation that works beautifully for everyday living. The entire lower level is dedicated to the primary suite, giving you a private retreat that feels tucked away from the rest of the home — a place to truly unwind at the end of the day. Just off the backyard, a bonus room adds extra flexibility and can easily become a home office, gym, art studio, or hobby space. Practical touches like a two-car garage and indoor laundry make daily life easy, while the setting does the rest. With deer grazing nearby and wild turkeys occasionally passing through, this home captures that relaxed, country feel Lake County is known for. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or searching for a weekend escape, this home offers incredible value — combining views, privacy, and a setting that people truly fall in love with.

22. 2025-09-11
    price $299,000
23. 2025-07-18
    price $310,000
24. 2025-04-14
    listed $320,000 Active
25. 2025-02-28
    historical
26. 2024-07-20
    price $293,000
27. 2024-01-03
    listed $299,888 Active
28. 2009-02-20
    soldstatus $169,000
29. 2009-02-20
    soldstatus $169,000
30. 2008-09-17
    listed $169,900
31. 2008-07-30
    historical
32. 2007-05-24
    listed $239,900
33. 2007-04-30
    historical
34. 2007-02-02
    listed $305,000
35. 2004-08-16
    soldstatus $270,000
36. 2004-08-16
    soldstatus $270,000
37. 2004-05-28
    listed $279,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,378 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,378 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,378
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,787
• − Management: −$1,787
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$9,440
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,266
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,971/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kelseyville Unified
• NCES district ID: 0619320
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,210
• Composite: 25.19/100
• National rank: #12920
• State rank: #1150 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Clearlake Riviera

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #690
• US rank: #20956

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clearlake Riviera, CA
• County: Lake County · 24,333 people
• Metro: Clearlake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 12,592
• Household income: $62,568
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 194.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.45%
• Current HPI: 168.6995
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Clearlake, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+2.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-26 Price Changed $285,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $299,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $299,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $310,000 CRMLS
• 2025-04-14 Listed $320,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-07-20 Price Changed $293,000 CRMLS
• 2024-01-03 Listed $299,888 CRMLS
• 2009-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $169,000 Public Records
• 2009-02-20 Sold (MLS) $169,000 CRMLS
• 2008-09-17 Listed $169,900 CRMLS
• 2008-07-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-05-24 Listed $239,900 CRMLS
• 2007-04-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-02-02 Listed $305,000 CRMLS
• 2004-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-16 Sold (MLS) $270,000 CRMLS
• 2004-05-28 Listed $279,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,378 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.