28680 Mercury St

Hayward, CA 94544

$349,950F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,546/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$205
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $-28/mo
• Annual: $-336/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $97,986

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-336/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (27.2% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $255k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#124 in CA, #4,294 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Hayward Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #935 of 1,400 in CA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ruus Elementary (379 students, 74% FRL); Cesar Chavez Middle (482 students, 69% FRL); Tennyson High (1,551 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.1% in Hayward — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.