28680 Mercury St · Hayward, CA 94544

$349,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2005 Est $258k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located in a desirable family park. Built in 2005, this spacious residence features an open-concept floor plan that creates a bright and inviting living environment, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Recent upgrades include brand-new interior paint and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, giving the home a fresh, modern feel. The kitchen has been updated with a new stove, dishwasher, and sink faucet, adding both style and functionality. Dual-pane windows enhance energy efficiency and comfort year-round. Additional highlights include a convenient indoor laundry room and generous front and back yard spac

Key facts

• Recent upgrades
• Indoor laundry room
• Community pool

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• RECENT UPGRADES
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• FRONT AND BACK YARD SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed; Community clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Guest parking; Private parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Single wide model (Westwood)
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Front porch; Front yard; Back yard; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Microwave; Free‑standing range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Primary bedroom suite on main level
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 total bathrooms (2 full)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: No additional rooms; Main entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-336/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.1% in Hayward — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#124 in CA, #4,294 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Hayward Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #935 of 1,400 in CA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ruus Elementary (379 students, 74% FRL); Cesar Chavez Middle (482 students, 69% FRL); Tennyson High (1,551 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $254,646 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $258,464
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28816 Jupiter St Unit -	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-5%)	9mo	$325,000	$260	80
29133 De La Cruz Rd	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+2%)	3mo	$231,900	$173	77
29131 Delgado Rd	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+10%)	3mo	$258,000	$179	66
29138 Delgado Rd	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+10%)	4mo	$284,000	$197	65
29315 Harpoon Way	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,334 (+2%)	1mo	$255,000	$191	64
29060 Aztec Rd #79	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+10%)	8mo	$297,500	$207	61
29043 Windemere	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-4%)	3mo	$319,000	$253	58
29255 Harpoon Way	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+10%)	1mo	$265,000	$184	57
29424 Providence Way	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+7%)	2mo	$399,800	$285	52
29413 Sandburg Way	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (+5%)	5mo	$327,000	$237	49
29050 S Westminster	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+10%)	5mo	$259,000	$180	43
935 Fall River Dr	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,494 (+14%)	9mo	$229,900	$154	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-59,759
• Equity at exit: $52,179

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-59,486
• Equity at exit: $30,257

Cash invested: $97,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94544

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,546 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $705/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,582

Max offer price $344,997

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $71	+0% $-28	+5% $-528	+10% $-649
Rent	-10% $-229	-5% $-129	+0% $-28	+5% $73	+10% $173
Rate	-1.0pp $148	-0.5pp $61	base $-28	+0.5pp $-119	+1.0pp $-211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,488
• Closing costs: $10,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34 Ballard Ct Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	46d	1	0.10mi
75 Quist Ave Hayward, CA	4.0	2.5	1866	$3,895	$2.09	15d	1	0.22mi
29189 Lassen St Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1180	$3,500	$2.97	46d	1	0.27mi
685 Carmar St Hayward, CA	4.0	2.0	1569	$3,900	$2.49	24d	1	0.29mi
317 Tennyson Rd Hayward, CA	3.0	1.0	1050	$3,395	$3.23	15d	1	0.29mi
720 W Tennyson Rd Hayward, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	630	$3,134	$4.97	0d	1	0.40mi
29163 Dixon St Hayward, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1100	$3,595	$3.27	0d	5	0.41mi
29289 Dixon St Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	990	$2,285	$2.31	26d	2	0.47mi
28850 Dixon St Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	906	$3,406	$3.76	0d	9	0.48mi
655 Tennyson Rd Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	857	$3,139	$3.66	1d	4	0.50mi
27703 Persimmon Dr Hayward, CA	3.0	3.0	1549	$3,695	$2.39	46d	1	0.51mi
28187 Karn Dr Hayward, CA	3.0	2.5	1335	$3,300	$2.47	7d	1	0.53mi
27427 Stoneridge Ct Hayward, CA	2.0	1.5	1008	$2,500	$2.48	46d	1	0.60mi
376 Line St Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	1286	$3,500	$2.72	0d	1	0.61mi
376 Line St Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	1286	$3,500	$2.72	4d	1	0.61mi
28168 Mission Blvd Hayward, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1196	$4,799	$4.01	0d	14	0.62mi
29384 Hub Ln Hayward, CA	3.0	2.5	1684	$3,950	$2.35	4d	1	0.62mi
29384 Hub Ln Hayward, CA	3.0	2.5	1684	$3,950	$2.35	6d	1	0.62mi
111 Notion Way Hayward, CA	3.0	2.5	1718	$4,250	$2.47	46d	1	0.64mi
837 Hancock St Hayward, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	955	$4,044	$4.23	0d	14	0.69mi
27500 Tampa Ave Unit 85 Hayward, CA	2.0	1.5	950	$2,275	$2.39	17d	1	0.75mi
27070 Manon Ave Unit 6A Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	46d	1	0.83mi
27162 Tampa Ave #70 Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	977	$2,550	$2.61	6d	1	0.83mi
27033 Belvedere Ct Apt 8 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,400	$2.67	26d	1	0.85mi
981 Cheryl Ann Cir #40 Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1245	$3,800	$3.05	46d	1	0.89mi
695 Bristol Dr #178 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	894	$2,750	$3.08	4d	1	0.97mi
287 Ebony Way Hayward, CA	4.0	2.5	1600	$3,450	$2.16	26d	1	0.99mi
26730 Tyrrell Ave Hayward, CA	4.0	2.0	1250	$3,650	$2.92	46d	1	1.04mi
530 Cottage Park Dr Hayward, CA	4.0	3.0	1806	$4,500	$2.49	7d	1	1.14mi
26379 Whitman St Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	898	$2,870	$3.19	1d	11	1.24mi
1234 McFarlane Ln Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1311	$3,660	$2.79	15d	1	1.32mi
26525 Gading Rd Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,350	$2.47	46d	1	1.34mi
25937 Dollar St Hayward, CA	3.0	2.5	1707	$3,700	$2.17	26d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $349,950 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,950 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,950 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,950 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,950 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,950 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,950 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,950 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,950 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,950 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $349,950 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $349,950 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $705 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,660 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,954/yr (+$163/mo · 277.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,558
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,603
• − Property taxes: −$705
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,445
• − Management: −$2,445
• − Depreciation: −$10,180
• Taxable loss: −$6,569
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,577
• After-tax cash flow: $1,240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hayward Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616740
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,326
• Composite: 31.27/100
• National rank: #11241
• State rank: #935 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hayward

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #4294

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hayward, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 191,800
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 76,947
• Household income: $107,785
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2573.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Asian 28% Two or more races 13% White 11% Black 7% Pacific Islander 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 8% Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -907.12%
• Current HPI: 315.6082
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.58%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $349,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $705 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.