417 Paddock St

Lehigh Acres, FL 33974

$354,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,717 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 126 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,996/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,856
• Tax + insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-498/mo
• Annual: $-5,981/yr
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.03%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $99,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $354k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-498 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (24.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (43.6% below list).
• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($312k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (43.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 2460 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 12 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 15633% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $354k implies a 1473% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$61k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.