6227 Rathbun Rd

Birch Run, MI 48415

$62,500B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,284/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$328
• Tax + insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $591/mo
• Annual: $7,093/yr
• Cap rate: 17.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.53%
• DSCR: 2.80
• 1% rule: 2.05%
• Cash to close: $17,500

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $62k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $62k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $432 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#341 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Birch Run Area Schools (rural): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #223 of 540 in MI (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Elementary School (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #735 of 1,397 statewide, top 53%, 667 students, 62% FRL); Marshall Greene Middle School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #215 of 493 statewide, top 45%, 548 students, 59% FRL); Birch Run High School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #187 of 713 statewide, top 29%, 573 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 39% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 12 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.