6227 Rathbun Rd · Birch Run, MI 48415

$62,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1999 1.90 ac lot $36/sqft · 68% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits with this spacious 3 possible 4 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home offering over 1,700 square feet of living space on just under 2 acres! Built in 1999, this property features a large island kitchen with dining area, a formal living room, and a separate family room with a patio door leading to the backyard deck, perfect for enjoying the peaceful setting. Outside, you will find a detached garage and additional storage shed for all your tools and toys. With plenty of space inside and out, this property is ideal for a buyer ready to add their own updates and build instant equity. A great chance to make this home your own at an affordable price!

Key facts

• Large island kitchen
• Formal living room
• Backyard deck

Tags

• LARGE ISLAND KITCHEN
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• SEPARATE FAMILY ROOM
• BACKYARD DECK
• DETACHED GARAGE
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 1.9 acres; Lot dimensions about 250 x 330; No pool

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane heating; No central air
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Total of 9 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $62k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $62k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#341 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Birch Run Area Schools (rural): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #223 of 540 in MI (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $432 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 12 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $62,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.53%
• DSCR: 2.80
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,694
• List price: $62,500
• Delta: -68.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6227 Rathbun Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,716 (0%)	0mo	$74,444	$43	100
6977 Rathbun Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+5%)	2mo	$270,000	$150	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $27,534
• Equity at exit: $9,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.14×
• Total profit: $72,511
• Equity at exit: $5,404

Cash invested: $17,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48415

• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,284 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$328
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $834/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $536

Max offer price $62,500

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $626	-5% $609	+0% $591	+5% $573	+10% $556
Rent	-10% $490	-5% $540	+0% $591	+5% $642	+10% $693
Rate	-1.0pp $623	-0.5pp $607	base $591	+0.5pp $575	+1.0pp $558

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,625
• Closing costs: $1,875
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $62,500 Active 667-char remark

   Show marketing remark (667 chars)

   Opportunity awaits with this spacious 3 possible 4 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home offering over 1,700 square feet of living space on just under 2 acres! Built in 1999, this property features a large island kitchen with dining area, a formal living room, and a separate family room with a patio door leading to the backyard deck, perfect for enjoying the peaceful setting. Outside, you will find a detached garage and additional storage shed for all your tools and toys. With plenty of space inside and out, this property is ideal for a buyer ready to add their own updates and build instant equity. A great chance to make this home your own at an affordable price!

2. 2026-05-13
   listed $62,500 Active 667-char remark

   Show marketing remark (667 chars)

   Opportunity awaits with this spacious 3 possible 4 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home offering over 1,700 square feet of living space on just under 2 acres! Built in 1999, this property features a large island kitchen with dining area, a formal living room, and a separate family room with a patio door leading to the backyard deck, perfect for enjoying the peaceful setting. Outside, you will find a detached garage and additional storage shed for all your tools and toys. With plenty of space inside and out, this property is ideal for a buyer ready to add their own updates and build instant equity. A great chance to make this home your own at an affordable price!

3. 2018-10-26
   soldstatus $56,000
4. 2018-10-05
   soldstatus $56,000

   Show marketing remark (163 chars)

   Very affordable 3 bedroom 2 bath country location in Birch Run Schools nestled on nearly 2 acres. Close to town and easy to get to shopping, Frankenmuth, and I-75.

5. 2018-10-05
   soldstatus $56,000 Closed

   Show marketing remark (163 chars)

   Very affordable 3 bedroom 2 bath country location in Birch Run Schools nestled on nearly 2 acres. Close to town and easy to get to shopping, Frankenmuth, and I-75.

6. 2018-08-29
   status Pending
7. 2018-08-04
   price $59,900
8. 2018-07-21
   status Active
9. 2018-06-20
   historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl
10. 2018-06-15
    price $69,900
11. 2018-06-11
    price $73,900
12. 2018-05-24
    listed $59,900

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Very affordable 3 bedroom 2 bath country location in Birch Run Schools nestled on nearly 2 acres. Close to town and easy to get to shopping, Frankenmuth, and I-75.

13. 2018-05-24
    listed $69,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Very affordable 3 bedroom 2 bath country location in Birch Run Schools nestled on nearly 2 acres. Close to town and easy to get to shopping, Frankenmuth, and I-75.

14. 2016-06-22
    historical
15. 2016-06-22
    soldstatus $25,000
16. 2016-06-22
    soldstatus $25,000 Closed
17. 2016-05-20
    status Pending
18. 2016-05-17
    listed $30,000 Active
19. 2016-05-17
    listed $30,000
20. 2016-04-29
    historical
21. 2016-04-25
    historical
22. 2016-04-22
    listed $34,900 Active
23. 2016-03-22
    listed $34,900 Active
24. 2016-03-15
    historical
25. 2016-03-14
    historical
26. 2016-01-20
    price $34,900
27. 2016-01-11
    historical
28. 2016-01-05
    listed $44,900 Active
29. 2015-07-14
    listed $44,900
30. 2015-07-14
    listed $34,900
31. 1999-09-22
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $834 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $898 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$64/yr (+$5/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,409
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,501
• − Property taxes: −$834
• − Insurance: −$312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,233
• − Management: −$1,233
• − Depreciation: −$1,818
• Taxable income: $6,478
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,555
• After-tax cash flow: $5,539/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birch Run Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2605820
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,432
• Composite: 33.54/100
• National rank: #5430
• State rank: #223 of 540 in MI

Livability — Birch Run

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #341
• US rank: #8715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,601

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.28%
• Current HPI: 203.5698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+337.9% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Sold (MLS) $74,444 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-09 Sold (MLS) $74,444 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-21 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-21 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $62,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-13 Listed $62,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-05 Sold (MLS) $56,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-10-05 Sold (MLS) $56,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-08-29 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-08-04 Price Changed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-07-21 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-06-20 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-06-15 Price Changed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-06-11 Price Changed $73,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-05-24 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-05-24 Listed $59,900 REALCOMP
• 2016-06-22 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-06-22 Sold (MLS) $25,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-06-22 Sold (MLS) $25,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-05-20 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-05-17 Listed $30,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-05-17 Listed $30,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-04-29 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-04-25 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2016-04-22 Listed $34,900 REALCOMP
• 2016-03-22 Listed $34,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-03-15 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2016-03-14 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2016-01-20 Price Changed $34,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2016-01-11 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2016-01-05 Listed $44,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2015-07-14 Listed $34,900 REALCOMP
• 2015-07-14 Listed $44,900 REALCOMP
• 1999-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $834 · -77.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.