495 22 1/4 Rd Unit A

Redlands, CO 81507

$375,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,918 sqft · Built 1981 · Condo · Active · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,979/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$280
• HOA: −$70
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $36/mo
• Annual: $435/yr
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.41%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($435/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (20.6% below list).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $298k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#153 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mesa County Valley School District No. 51 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #43 of 86 in CO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Broadway Elementary School (math 34% / reading 62%, grade D, #232 of 966 statewide, top 25%, 301 students, 23% FRL); Redlands Middle School (math 39% / reading 42%, grade F, #76 of 270 statewide, top 28%, 538 students, 17% FRL); Grand Junction High School (math 25% / reading 53%, grade F, #188 of 381 statewide, top 49%, 1,522 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 303 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in Mesa County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $270k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.5% in Redlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.