495 22 1/4 Rd Unit A · Redlands, CO 81507

$375,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,918 sqft · Condo public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1981 $70/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

VIEWS and space! This bi-level is a well-maintained home with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and 2 living spaces. Featuring many areas to rest, craft, study and hang out, this home has room to spread out! Many improvements have been made to this property. The pergola offers great shade for outside time, and the 2-car detached garage is built out with electrical. The location is close to both BLM and National Park land, as well as proximity to both downtown and the 24 Road corridor. Not to forget the Riggs Hill trail systems is walking-distance from the home. Come check out this great home, you cannot beat the space for the value.

Key facts

• Pergola
• Detached garage
• $70 HOA

Tags

• PERGOLA
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Hale Sub
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $70 monthly fee; HOA fee includes insurance and sewer

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 2 spaces; Garage door opener; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; Two levels; Faces east
• Construction: Masonite siding; Asphalt composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as condominium (residential)
• Exterior features: Deck; Paved road frontage on a city street; Publicly maintained road; Irregular lot shape; Elevation ~4600 ft

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Evaporative cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Granite counters; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet in hall

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($435/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $298k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.5% in Redlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#153 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mesa County Valley School District No. 51 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #43 of 86 in CO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Broadway Elementary School (math 34% / reading 62%, grade D, #232 of 966 statewide, top 25%, 301 students, 23% FRL); Redlands Middle School (math 39% / reading 42%, grade F, #76 of 270 statewide, top 28%, 538 students, 17% FRL); Grand Junction High School (math 25% / reading 53%, grade F, #188 of 381 statewide, top 49%, 1,522 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 303 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in Mesa County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $270k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $297,875 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.41%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-51,716
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-13,074
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81507

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,979 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,490/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,933

Max offer price $375,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $249	-5% $142	+0% $36	+5% $-70	+10% $-176
Rent	-10% $-199	-5% $-81	+0% $36	+5% $154	+10% $272
Rate	-1.0pp $225	-0.5pp $132	base $36	+0.5pp $-61	+1.0pp $-160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
547 W Greenwood Dr Grand Junction, CO	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,400	$1.26	21d	1	0.76mi
2094 Two Wood Dr Grand Junction, CO	3.0	2.0	1950	$3,200	$1.64	21d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: electric
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $375,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $375,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $375,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $375,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $375,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-04-08
   listed $375,000 Active
7. 2025-10-13
   price $375,000
8. 2025-09-17
   listed $394,400 Active
9. 2020-12-23
   soldstatus $270,000
10. 2019-03-01
    soldstatus $239,900
11. 2007-09-27
    soldstatus $225,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,490 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,062 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$573/yr (+$48/mo · 38.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,745
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$1,490
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,860
• − Management: −$2,860
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$6,094
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,463
• After-tax cash flow: $1,898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesa County Valley School District No. 51
• NCES district ID: 0804350
• Math proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,189
• Composite: 27.83/100
• National rank: #6884
• State rank: #43 of 86 in CO

Livability — Redlands

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #153
• US rank: #12382

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redlands, CO
• County: Mesa County · 143,088 people
• Metro: Grand Junction, CO
• Population (ZIP): 15,947
• Household income: $107,528
• Rent vs Own: 8.5% rent · 91.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 131.0

Population outlook (Mesa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,000 people
• By 2030: 154,479 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 155,257 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 153,384 · +0.3%
• By 2075: 144,735 · -5.4%
• By 2100: 123,825 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Serbian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mesa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.3) · D 36.6% · R 61.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -29.5pp · 2024: -24.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.3 2020: R+28.0 2016: R+36.3 2012: R+32.8 2008: R+29.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -390.68%
• Current HPI: 300.8941
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.24%
• Metro: Grand Junction, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $375,000 GJARA
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $375,000 GJARA
• 2025-09-17 Listed $394,400 GJARA
• 2020-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $239,900 Public Records
• 2007-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,490 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.