3300 15th St W #383

Rosamond, CA 93560

$119,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,239/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$700
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $240/mo
• Annual: $2,882/yr
• Cap rate: 8.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.58%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.87%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,178 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Southern Kern Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #387 of 517 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.
• Market conditions: 458 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.3% in Rosamond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.