61 Hamms Rocky Hl

Front Royal, VA 22630

$180,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,096 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,686/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$210
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $178/mo
• Annual: $2,132/yr
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.55%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (6.4% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#162 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $180k implies a 454% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.6% in Front Royal — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.