61 Hamms Rocky Hl · Front Royal, VA 22630

$180,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,096 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1970 1.03 ac lot $164/sqft · 44% below area Est $324k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your vision to this incredible 1.03-acre lot boasting panoramic mountain views and a prime location in the heart of Front Royal. This property is being sold "AS IS WHERE IS" and is a prime candidate for a custom new build or a total renovation project. The true value lies in the expansive, open land and impressive exterior additions, including a custom-made, extra-large detached 2-car garage and a storage shed. Zoned A-1, offering flexibility for agricultural pursuits or expanded accessory structures. Location Highlights: Commuter Friendly: Just minutes from I-66 and I-81, providing easy access to Northern Virginia and Winchester. Outdoor Paradise: Situated near the entrance of Shenandoah National Park (Skyline Drive) and the Shenandoah River for world-class hiking, fishing, and kayaking. Local Amenities: Close to the charming shops and dining of Historic Downtown Front Royal. This is a rare opportunity to secure a high-potential investment or build your dream home with a view. Sold strictly AS-IS. Shared septic in place; no well on-site. A rare "blank canvas" opportunity for investors and dream-home builders alike!

Key facts

• Zoned a-1
• Storage shed
• 1.03-acre lot

Tags

• 1.03-ACRE LOT
• PANORAMIC MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• CUSTOM-MADE DETACHED GARAGE
• STORAGE SHED
• ZONED A-1
• NEAR SHENANDOAH NATIONAL PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.6% in Front Royal — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#162 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $180k implies a 454% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,559 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.55%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,261
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -44.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-8,972
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $47,183
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22630

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,686 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $953/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,461

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $180,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-04-06
    listed $180,000 Active 1159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1159 chars)

    Bring your vision to this incredible 1.03-acre lot boasting panoramic mountain views and a prime location in the heart of Front Royal. This property is being sold "AS IS WHERE IS" and is a prime candidate for a custom new build or a total renovation project. The true value lies in the expansive, open land and impressive exterior additions, including a custom-made, extra-large detached 2-car garage and a storage shed. Zoned A-1, offering flexibility for agricultural pursuits or expanded accessory structures. Location Highlights: Commuter Friendly: Just minutes from I-66 and I-81, providing easy access to Northern Virginia and Winchester. Outdoor Paradise: Situated near the entrance of Shenandoah National Park (Skyline Drive) and the Shenandoah River for world-class hiking, fishing, and kayaking. Local Amenities: Close to the charming shops and dining of Historic Downtown Front Royal. This is a rare opportunity to secure a high-potential investment or build your dream home with a view. Sold strictly AS-IS. Shared septic in place; no well on-site. A rare "blank canvas" opportunity for investors and dream-home builders alike!

15. 2021-08-11
    historical
16. 2021-05-11
    status Active
17. 2021-05-03
    historical
18. 2021-03-24
    price $99,000
19. 2021-01-08
    listed $105,000 Active
20. 2018-10-14
    historical
21. 2018-02-24
    listed $100,000 Active
22. 2017-09-04
    historical
23. 2017-09-04
    historical Withdrawn
24. 2017-05-16
    price
25. 2017-04-09
    listed Active
26. 2017-04-09
    listed $99,900
27. 2014-03-25
    historical
28. 2014-03-21
    soldstatus $32,500 Sold
29. 2014-03-21
    soldstatus $32,500
30. 2014-03-15
    status Contract
31. 2014-03-14
    historical
32. 2014-02-17
    price $39,900
33. 2014-01-23
    listed $47,900 Active
34. 2014-01-23
    listed $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $953 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,476 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$523/yr (+$44/mo · 54.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥98°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$953
• − Insurance: −$1,566
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,618
• − Management: −$1,618
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$848
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$204
• After-tax cash flow: $2,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,504
• Composite: 49.22/100
• National rank: #2039
• State rank: #70 of 131 in VA

Livability — Front Royal

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #5050

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warren County · 35,615 people
• City population: 35,615
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 35,615
• Household income: $84,631
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 460.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,045 people
• By 2030: 43,257 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 45,088 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 45,567 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 46,081 · +9.6%
• By 2100: 42,093 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.6% · R 68.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+35.3 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 319.8136
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.30%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+351.1% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $180,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-08-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-11 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-03-24 Price Changed $99,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-01-08 Listed $105,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-10-14 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-02-24 Listed $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-09-04 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-09-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-05-16 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2017-04-09 Listed — MRIS
• 2017-04-09 Listed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-03-25 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-03-21 Sold (MLS) $32,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-03-21 Sold (MLS) $32,500 MRIS
• 2014-03-15 Pending — MRIS
• 2014-03-14 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-02-17 Price Changed $39,900 MRIS
• 2014-01-23 Listed $47,900 MRIS
• 2014-01-23 Listed $39,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $953 · +56.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.