2866 Forest Manor Ave

Indianapolis city (balance), IN 46218

$73,500B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,036 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 169 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,386/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$385
• Tax + insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $521/mo
• Annual: $6,255/yr
• Cap rate: 14.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.40%
• DSCR: 2.35
• 1% rule: 1.89%
• Cash to close: $20,580

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $74k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $521 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $74k).
• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $65k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $508 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Indianapolis Public Schools (urban): math 14% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #286 of 301 in IN (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 334 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,906 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 4.4% in Indianapolis city (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($38k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.