2866 Forest Manor Ave · Indianapolis city (balance), IN 46218

$73,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,036 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 169 Days on market

Built 1930 6,621 sqft lot Est $125k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This Home in Brightwood is ready for its New Owners to help her Shine Brighter. This one boasts 3 Bed 1 Bath and an unfinished basement with Newer HVAC. Decent Sized Back Yard with Some Street Parking and Alley Access as well. There are some Renovated Homes so the chance for Possible Flip or a Primary Residence with Equity. The work has been started, Now is the time for the Right Person to finish the job. Low to No Down Payment Programs are available as well as Renovation Loan Programs for Primary Residence. Come see this today and fall in love

Key facts

• Alley access
• Renovated homes
• Unfinished basement

Tags

• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• NEWER HVAC
• DECENT SIZED BACK YARD
• ALLEY ACCESS
• RENOVATED HOMES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $74k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $521 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 4.4% in Indianapolis city (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Indianapolis Public Schools (urban): math 14% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #286 of 301 in IN (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 334 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,906 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($38k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $508 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $64,680 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.40%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $125,356
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2925 N Chester Ave	0.08mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,096 (+6%)	4mo	$52,500	$48	78
3148 N Gale St	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,068 (+3%)	3mo	$116,000	$109	67
4315 E 30th	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,176 (+14%)	0mo	$66,500	$57	66
3126 Forest Manor Ave	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	954 (-8%)	4mo	$55,000	$58	66
3239 N Colorado Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,104 (+7%)	4mo	$149,500	$135	61
2225 N Drexel Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,044 (+1%)	5mo	$100,000	$96	60
3814 E 31st St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	899 (-13%)	1mo	$108,500	$121	59
3320 E 26th St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,068 (+3%)	3mo	$156,500	$147	56
3119 N Dequincy St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,079 (+4%)	3mo	$95,000	$88	55
2956 Wallace Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0	888 (-14%)	2mo	$143,000	$161	55
3219 N Colorado Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	912 (-12%)	4mo	$139,900	$153	53
2949 Wallace Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0	888 (-14%)	4mo	$110,000	$124	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $18,363
• Equity at exit: $10,959

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $47,252
• Equity at exit: $6,355

Cash invested: $20,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46218

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,386 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$385
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,891/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $726

Max offer price $73,500

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,375
• Closing costs: $2,205
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2864 Forest Manor Ave Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	1018	$1,500	$1.47	23d	1	0.03mi
2862 N Chester Ave Indianapolis, IN	3.0	2.0	1076	$1,520	$1.41	43d	1	0.09mi
2819 N Gladstone Ave Indianapolis, IN	4.0	2.0	1261	$1,450	$1.15	43d	1	0.15mi
3920 E 30th St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	1071	$1,350	$1.26	4d	1	0.18mi
3920 E 30th St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	1071	$1,350	$1.26	7d	1	0.18mi
4320 E 30th St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.5	1152	$1,195	$1.04	23d	1	0.23mi
3149 N Gladstone Ave Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.5	1036	$1,350	$1.30	7d	1	0.33mi
2932 Arthington Blvd Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	23d	1	0.35mi
2826 Station St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,550	$1.24	43d	1	0.36mi
3142 N Euclid Ave Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,050	$1.00	43d	1	0.39mi
2950 N Dequincy St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	888	$1,375	$1.55	13d	1	0.45mi
3167 Shick Dr Indianapolis, IN	4.0	1.0	1141	$2,350	$2.06	43d	1	0.55mi
3315 N Euclid Ave Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	780	$1,300	$1.67	14d	1	0.59mi
2949 Adams St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	978	$1,150	$1.18	43d	1	0.61mi
3451 E 26th St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	43d	1	0.62mi
3449 E 26th St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,512	$1.26	2d	1	0.62mi
2827 Adams St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,512	$1.26	2d	1	0.63mi
3383 Station St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	744	$1,250	$1.68	23d	1	0.66mi
2906 N Lasalle St Indianapolis, IN	4.0	1.0	1032	$950	$0.92	23d	1	0.70mi
2920 N Lasalle St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	875	$1,095	$1.25	17d	1	0.70mi
2830 Lasalle St Unit 28 Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,100	$0.79	43d	1	0.70mi
3332 Wallace Ave Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	936	$1,600	$1.71	23d	1	0.71mi
2221 Station St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	2.5	1312	$1,600	$1.22	23d	1	0.72mi
2410 Adams St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	10d	1	0.76mi
2343 E Adams St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,199	$1.00	43d	1	0.80mi
2341 Adams St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,199	$1.00	43d	1	0.81mi
3421 N Olney St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	720	$1,195	$1.66	16d	1	0.82mi
3316 N Emerson Ave Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	23d	1	0.93mi
3522 N Olney St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	768	$1,300	$1.69	43d	1	0.95mi
2194 N Riley Ave Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,749	$1.59	43d	1	0.95mi
2030 N Colorado Ave Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	728	$1,150	$1.58	23d	1	0.96mi
3301 Mardenna Ave Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	925	$1,200	$1.30	43d	1	1.04mi
3472 N Dearborn St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	890	$1,099	$1.23	19d	1	1.06mi
3725 N Sherman Dr #7 Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	729	$845	$1.16	4d	1	1.07mi
1951 N Bosart Ave Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	728	$1,000	$1.37	4d	1	1.11mi
3734 Manor Ct Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	1414	$1,399	$0.99	7d	1	1.14mi
3319 N Hawthorne Ln Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,100	$1.01	23d	1	1.16mi
2931 N Tacoma Ave Unit 31 Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	7d	1	1.17mi
2045 N Dearborn St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	2.0	912	$1,145	$1.26	23d	1	1.18mi
5130 E 21st St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,500	$1.26	23d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-02-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-09
   price $73,500
3. 2025-08-18
   listed $83,000 Active
4. 2005-10-30
   historical
5. 2005-01-29
   listed $19,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,891 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,891 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,117
• − Property taxes: −$1,891
• − Insurance: −$368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,331
• − Management: −$1,331
• − Depreciation: −$2,138
• Taxable income: $5,457
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,310
• After-tax cash flow: $4,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indianapolis Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 1804770
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,034
• Composite: 13.69/100
• National rank: #9499
• State rank: #286 of 301 in IN

Livability — Indianapolis city (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Indianapolis city (balance), IN
• County: Marion County · 998,460 people
• City population: 881,119
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• Population (ZIP): 29,360
• Household income: $38,063
• Rent vs Own: 47.2% rent · 52.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2340.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,572 people
• By 2030: 1,065,727 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 1,141,577 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 1,208,920 · +17.9%
• By 2075: 1,367,288 · +33.3%
• By 2100: 1,438,201 · +40.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% White 18% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.7) · D 63.0% · R 35.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 27.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.7 2020: D+29.1 2016: D+22.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.57%
• Current HPI: 395.7071
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.81%
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+269.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $73,500 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-18 Listed $83,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-30 Listing Removed — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-29 Listed $19,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+28.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,891 · +26.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.