10195 Sweet Creek Rd

Mapleton, OR 97453

$179,900D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 660 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Active · 146 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,193/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-186/mo
• Annual: $-2,231/yr
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.85%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (33.7% below list).
• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mapleton SD 32 (rural): math 15% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #175 of 183 in OR (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.