10195 Sweet Creek Rd · Mapleton, OR 97453

$179,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 660 sqft · Manufactured public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1978 1.89 ac lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1.89 acres overlooking the Siuslaw River with orchard (apples, kiwi, cherries, pears, blueberries & more) and outbuilding. Existing MFH is not livable and offers no value—cash only, as-is sale. Ideal for replacement home or investment opportunity. Buyer to complete due diligence.

Key facts

• 1.89 acre lot
• Built 1978
• Listed 144 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (33.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mapleton SD 32 (rural): math 15% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #175 of 183 in OR (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,332 (33.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.85%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.12% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,542
• Equity at exit: $72,128

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $32,666
• Equity at exit: $104,772

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97453

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,193 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,429

Max offer price $147,061

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-84	-5% $-135	+0% $-186	+5% $-237	+10% $-288
Rent	-10% $-280	-5% $-233	+0% $-186	+5% $-139	+10% $-92
Rate	-1.0pp $-95	-0.5pp $-140	base $-186	+0.5pp $-233	+1.0pp $-280

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,900 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,900 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-03-20
    price $179,900 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    1.89 acres overlooking the Siuslaw River with orchard (apples, kiwi, cherries, pears, blueberries & more) and outbuilding. Existing MFH is not livable and offers no value—cash only, as-is sale. Ideal for replacement home or investment opportunity. Buyer to complete due diligence.

16. 2026-03-19
    price $179,900 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    1.89 acres overlooking the Siuslaw River with orchard (apples, kiwi, cherries, pears, blueberries & more) and outbuilding. Existing MFH is not livable and offers no value—cash only, as-is sale. Ideal for replacement home or investment opportunity. Buyer to complete due diligence.

17. 2026-03-05
    status Active 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    1.89 acres overlooking the Siuslaw River with orchard (apples, kiwi, cherries, pears, blueberries & more) and outbuilding. Existing MFH is not livable and offers no value—cash only, as-is sale. Ideal for replacement home or investment opportunity. Buyer to complete due diligence.

18. 2026-03-05
    status Active 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    1.89 acres overlooking the Siuslaw River with orchard (apples, kiwi, cherries, pears, blueberries & more) and outbuilding. Existing MFH is not livable and offers no value—cash only, as-is sale. Ideal for replacement home or investment opportunity. Buyer to complete due diligence.

19. 2026-02-14
    status Pending 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    1.89 acres overlooking the Siuslaw River with orchard (apples, kiwi, cherries, pears, blueberries & more) and outbuilding. Existing MFH is not livable and offers no value—cash only, as-is sale. Ideal for replacement home or investment opportunity. Buyer to complete due diligence.

20. 2026-02-14
    status Pending 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    1.89 acres overlooking the Siuslaw River with orchard (apples, kiwi, cherries, pears, blueberries & more) and outbuilding. Existing MFH is not livable and offers no value—cash only, as-is sale. Ideal for replacement home or investment opportunity. Buyer to complete due diligence.

21. 2026-01-05
    listed $200,000 Active 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    1.89 acres overlooking the Siuslaw River with orchard (apples, kiwi, cherries, pears, blueberries & more) and outbuilding. Existing MFH is not livable and offers no value—cash only, as-is sale. Ideal for replacement home or investment opportunity. Buyer to complete due diligence.

22. 2026-01-05
    listed $200,000 Active 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    1.89 acres overlooking the Siuslaw River with orchard (apples, kiwi, cherries, pears, blueberries & more) and outbuilding. Existing MFH is not livable and offers no value—cash only, as-is sale. Ideal for replacement home or investment opportunity. Buyer to complete due diligence.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $525 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,745 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,220/yr (+$102/mo · 232.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥85°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,320
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$1,697
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,146
• − Management: −$1,146
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$5,504
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,321
• After-tax cash flow: $-910/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mapleton SD 32
• NCES district ID: 4107710
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $37,595
• Composite: 23.87/100
• National rank: #13210
• State rank: #175 of 183 in OR

Livability — Mapleton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 940

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 13% Slovak 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.12%
• Current HPI: 282.1609
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $179,900 WVMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $179,900 RMLS
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2026-02-14 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-02-14 Pending — WVMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $200,000 RMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $200,000 WVMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $525 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.