15416 Baker Meadow Loop

College Station, TX 77845

$277,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,298 sqft · Built 2013 · SingleFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,384/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,453
• Tax + insurance: −$542
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $-154/mo
• Annual: $-1,843/yr
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.38%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $77,560

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $277k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (13.9% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $238k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#11 in TX, #994 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-.
• College Station ISD (urban): math 58% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #113 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greens Prairie El (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #409 of 4,322 statewide, top 10%, 557 students, 14% FRL); College Station Middle (math 51% / reading 56%, grade C+, #275 of 1,662 statewide, top 17%, 645 students, 46% FRL); College Station H S (math 78% / reading 61%, grade B, #119 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,134 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 1179 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 91% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in College Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.