15416 Baker Meadow Loop · College Station, TX 77845

$277,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,298 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2013 7,183 sqft lot $213/sqft · at area comps Est $288k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't settle for a small backyard, How does a . 17 acre lot that backs up to a wooded green space sound? Escape from Aggieland to the ever popular Creek Meadows subdivision known for its neighborhood amenities such as a community pool, basketball courts, playground and stocked pond. This nearly flawless home offers TONS of natural light! The open floor plan and high ceilings create an inviting and spacious feel. Well laid out 3 bedroom, 2 bath split floor plan with kitchen that looks out to the large family room and HUGE backyard. Attractive mocha cabinets, granite counters, tile back splash, pantry & vinyl plank flooring complete the main living areas. The spacious master features a

Key facts

• Community pool
• Wooded green space
• 17 acre lot

Tags

• 17 ACRE LOT
• WOODED GREEN SPACE
• CREEK MEADOWS SUBDIVISION
• COMMUNITY POOL
• BASKETBALL COURTS
• PLAYGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $277k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in College Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#11 in TX, #994 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-.
• College Station ISD (urban): math 58% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #113 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greens Prairie El (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #409 of 4,322 statewide, top 10%, 557 students, 14% FRL); College Station Middle (math 51% / reading 56%, grade C+, #275 of 1,662 statewide, top 17%, 645 students, 46% FRL); College Station H S (math 78% / reading 61%, grade B, #119 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,134 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 1179 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 91% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,389 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.38%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,387
• List price: $277,000
• Delta: 2.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15472 Baker Meadow Loop	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+9%)	0mo	$290,000	$206	78
3809 Clear Meadow Creek Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,261 (-3%)	21mo	$290,000	$230	72
15462 Baker Meadow Loop	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,385 (+7%)	19mo	$284,900	$206	65
3815 Clear Meadow Creek Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,173 (-10%)	16mo	$259,900	$222	65
3702 Stevens Creek Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,479 (+14%)	21mo	$313,000	$212	57
3880 Still Creek Loop	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+15%)	16mo	$309,900	$208	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-54,247
• Equity at exit: $41,302

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-58,099
• Equity at exit: $23,950

Cash invested: $77,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77845

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 1179
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,384 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,453
• Tax from tax record: −$427 /mo · $5,122/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $-154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,578

Max offer price $249,862

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3	-5% $-75	+0% $-154	+5% $-232	+10% $-310
Rent	-10% $-342	-5% $-248	+0% $-154	+5% $-59	+10% $35
Rate	-1.0pp $-14	-0.5pp $-83	base $-154	+0.5pp $-225	+1.0pp $-298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,250
• Closing costs: $8,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15605 Long Creek Ln College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,400	$1.30	22d	1	0.15mi
15605 Long Creek Ln College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,500	$1.36	15d	1	0.15mi
15232 Still Water Meadow Loop College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,300	$1.61	45d	1	0.35mi
4206 Carnes Ct S College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1840	$2,300	$1.25	15d	1	0.36mi
3904 Brownway Ct College Station, TX	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,650	$1.52	46d	1	1.04mi
2301 Norham Dr College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,250	$1.59	15d	1	1.17mi
438 William D Fitch Pkwy College Station, TX	3.0	2.5	1836	$2,900	$1.58	15d	1	1.32mi
2802 Silver Oak Dr College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,950	$1.44	45d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $277,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $277,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $277,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $277,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $277,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $277,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $277,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $277,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $277,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $277,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 695-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $277,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-05-05
    historical
14. 2026-02-05
    listed $295,000 Active
15. 2026-02-05
    historical
16. 2025-04-04
    listed $290,000 Active
17. 2024-11-05
    historical $2,400
18. 2024-07-03
    listed $2,400
19. 2022-05-03
    soldstatus
20. 2022-05-02
    soldstatus
21. 2022-03-15
    listed $270,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,122 · $427/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,122 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 91% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,516
• − Property taxes: −$5,122
• − Insurance: −$1,385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,289
• − Management: −$2,289
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$8,058
• Taxable loss: −$6,556
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,573
• After-tax cash flow: $-270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: College Station ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807350
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,991
• Composite: 46.54/100
• National rank: #2428
• State rank: #113 of 826 in TX

Livability — College Station

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #994

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: College Station, TX
• County: Brazos County · 233,400 people
• City population: 131,628
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 76,764
• Household income: $88,851
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3329.0

Population outlook (Brazos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,942 people
• By 2030: 296,630 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 354,560 · +32.3%
• By 2050: 414,616 · +54.7%
• By 2075: 562,158 · +109.8%
• By 2100: 678,828 · +153.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Asian 8% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazos

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.9% · R 61.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.31%
• Current HPI: 175.9669
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.13%
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-05 Rental Removed $2,400 BCSRMLS
• 2024-07-03 Listed for Rent $2,400 BCSRMLS
• 2022-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-02 Sold (MLS) — BCSRMLS
• 2022-03-15 Listed $270,000 BCSRMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,122 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.