8133 Cottonwood Dr

Friant, CA 93626

$519,990D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,126 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,350/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,727
• Tax + insurance: −$867
• HOA: −$197
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-1,934/mo
• Annual: $-23,208/yr
• Cap rate: 1.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.94%
• DSCR: 0.29
• 1% rule: 0.45%
• Cash to close: $145,597

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $520k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (53.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (54.8% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($512k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $235k (54.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,341 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living D+, employment D, crime F.
• Clovis Unified (suburban): math 58% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #152 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary (621 students, 39% FRL); Kastner Intermediate (1,133 students, 56% FRL); Clovis West High (2,089 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 2.3% in Friant — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.