8133 Cottonwood Dr · Friant, CA 93626

$519,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,126 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 2026 6,098 sqft lot $245/sqft · 17% below area Est $624k · 17% under $197/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Cash flow +1.9/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover Chaparral Ranch at The Preserve, a community of new homes for sale in Friant, CA. Choose from six floorplans of up to 2,932 sq. ft. , 4 beds, 3.5 baths, and 3-car garages. Select plans feature an Extra Suite+, an apartment-style living area within your home that's perfect for multigenerational living, housing a caregiver, or hosting extended guests. We offer Looks, a simplified way to create a beautiful interior. Choose from four distinct options - Elements, Loft, Farmhouse, or Classic - offering unique palettes assembled to evoke a specific vibe throughout your home. Commute easily to school, work, and fun with plenty of highways, public transit, and airports nearby. You're not far from outdoor recreation, everyday conveniences, shopping, and dining. Experience life at Chaparral Ranch at The Preserve today! Offered By: K. Hovnanian Communities, Inc. The Amadora offers: Home office with sliding barn doors creates a defined, private workspace. Vaulted ceiling unifies the kitchen, great room & dining area with an open, airy feel. Ash Grey cabinetry & a wall oven give the kitchen a clean, contemporary look. Dual 12' multi-slide doors extend the main living areas to a spacious covered patio. Primary bath includes dual sinks & a freestanding soaking tub. 2-car garage provides everyday parking & storage.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool; Clubhouse; Fitness center; Green/common areas; Playground; Landscape maintenance; Gated community; Association fee approximately $197.88 per month

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Electric service on; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Stucco construction; Concrete foundation; Tile roof
• Exterior features: One level; Tile roof; Stucco exterior; Concrete foundation; Solar panels; Urban lot; Front sprinklers; Automatic sprinklers; Drip irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven (full-size); Electric appliances; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms; Tub and shower combinations
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and cooling; Has heating and has cooling
• Interior features: Office; Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $520k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (53.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (54.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (54.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 2.3% in Friant — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,341 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living D+, employment D, crime F.
• Clovis Unified (suburban): math 58% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #152 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary (621 students, 39% FRL); Kastner Intermediate (1,133 students, 56% FRL); Clovis West High (2,089 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($512k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $235,000 (54.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.94%
• DSCR: 0.29
• GRM: 18.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $624,307
• List price: $519,990
• Delta: -10.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8069 Cottonwood Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,925 (-10%)	2mo	$494,990	$257	83
8050 Cottonwood Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,925 (-10%)	4mo	$536,739	$279	81
8082 Cottonwood Dr	0.00mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,406 (+13%)	1mo	$581,790	$242	68
8022 Cottonwood Dr	0.00mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,406 (+13%)	3mo	$569,990	$237	67
17135 N Burroughs Ave	0.33mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,340 (+10%)	20mo	$647,500	$277	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $160,177
• Equity at exit: $468,448

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.91×
• Total profit: $568,874
• Equity at exit: $1,010,226

Cash invested: $145,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93626

• Home prices YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 18.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,727
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$650 /mo · $7,800/yr
• Insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$197
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-1,934

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,798

Max offer price $240,132

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,575	-5% $-1,754	+0% $-1,934	+5% $-2,114	+10% $-2,293
Rent	-10% $-2,120	-5% $-2,027	+0% $-1,934	+5% $-1,841	+10% $-1,748
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,672	-0.5pp $-1,802	base $-1,934	+0.5pp $-2,069	+1.0pp $-2,206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,998
• Closing costs: $15,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17317 Parkcliffe Ln Friant, CA	3.0	2.0	1908	$2,350	$1.23	45d	1	0.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $197 · $2,364/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $519,990 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   price $519,990 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $541,990 Active 14 DOM

   Show marketing remark (1353 chars)

   Discover Chaparral Ranch at The Preserve, a community of new homes for sale in Friant, CA. Choose from six floorplans of up to 2,932 sq. ft. , 4 beds, 3.5 baths, and 3-car garages. Select plans feature an Extra Suite+, an apartment-style living area within your home that's perfect for multigenerational living, housing a caregiver, or hosting extended guests. We offer Looks, a simplified way to create a beautiful interior. Choose from four distinct options - Elements, Loft, Farmhouse, or Classic - offering unique palettes assembled to evoke a specific vibe throughout your home. Commute easily to school, work, and fun with plenty of highways, public transit, and airports nearby. You're not far from outdoor recreation, everyday conveniences, shopping, and dining. Experience life at Chaparral Ranch at The Preserve today! Offered By: K. Hovnanian Communities, Inc. The Amadora offers: Home office with sliding barn doors creates a defined, private workspace. Vaulted ceiling unifies the kitchen, great room & dining area with an open, airy feel. Ash Grey cabinetry & a wall oven give the kitchen a clean, contemporary look. Dual 12' multi-slide doors extend the main living areas to a spacious covered patio. Primary bath includes dual sinks & a freestanding soaking tub. 2-car garage provides everyday parking & storage.

4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $541,990 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $541,990 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $541,990 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $541,990 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $541,990 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $556,990 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $556,990 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $556,990 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $556,990 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on marketlisting id $556,990 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $556,990 Active 69 DOM

    Show marketing remark (1353 chars)

    Discover Chaparral Ranch at The Preserve, a community of new homes for sale in Friant, CA. Choose from six floorplans of up to 2,932 sq. ft. , 4 beds, 3.5 baths, and 3-car garages. Select plans feature an Extra Suite+, an apartment-style living area within your home that's perfect for multigenerational living, housing a caregiver, or hosting extended guests. We offer Looks, a simplified way to create a beautiful interior. Choose from four distinct options - Elements, Loft, Farmhouse, or Classic - offering unique palettes assembled to evoke a specific vibe throughout your home. Commute easily to school, work, and fun with plenty of highways, public transit, and airports nearby. You're not far from outdoor recreation, everyday conveniences, shopping, and dining. Experience life at Chaparral Ranch at The Preserve today! Offered By: K. Hovnanian Communities, Inc. The Amadora offers: Home office with sliding barn doors creates a defined, private workspace. Vaulted ceiling unifies the kitchen, great room & dining area with an open, airy feel. Ash Grey cabinetry & a wall oven give the kitchen a clean, contemporary look. Dual 12' multi-slide doors extend the main living areas to a spacious covered patio. Primary bath includes dual sinks & a freestanding soaking tub. 2-car garage provides everyday parking & storage.

15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $566,990 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $566,990 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $566,990 Active 66 DOM
18. 2026-05-07
    price $566,990 1353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1353 chars)

    Discover Chaparral Ranch at The Preserve, a community of new homes for sale in Friant, CA. Choose from six floorplans of up to 2,932 sq. ft. , 4 beds, 3.5 baths, and 3-car garages. Select plans feature an Extra Suite+, an apartment-style living area within your home that's perfect for multigenerational living, housing a caregiver, or hosting extended guests. We offer Looks, a simplified way to create a beautiful interior. Choose from four distinct options - Elements, Loft, Farmhouse, or Classic - offering unique palettes assembled to evoke a specific vibe throughout your home. Commute easily to school, work, and fun with plenty of highways, public transit, and airports nearby. You're not far from outdoor recreation, everyday conveniences, shopping, and dining. Experience life at Chaparral Ranch at The Preserve today! Offered By: K. Hovnanian Communities, Inc. The Amadora offers: Home office with sliding barn doors creates a defined, private workspace. Vaulted ceiling unifies the kitchen, great room & dining area with an open, airy feel. Ash Grey cabinetry & a wall oven give the kitchen a clean, contemporary look. Dual 12' multi-slide doors extend the main living areas to a spacious covered patio. Primary bath includes dual sinks & a freestanding soaking tub. 2-car garage provides everyday parking & storage.

19. 2026-03-26
    listed $581,990 Active 1353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1353 chars)

    Discover Chaparral Ranch at The Preserve, a community of new homes for sale in Friant, CA. Choose from six floorplans of up to 2,932 sq. ft. , 4 beds, 3.5 baths, and 3-car garages. Select plans feature an Extra Suite+, an apartment-style living area within your home that's perfect for multigenerational living, housing a caregiver, or hosting extended guests. We offer Looks, a simplified way to create a beautiful interior. Choose from four distinct options - Elements, Loft, Farmhouse, or Classic - offering unique palettes assembled to evoke a specific vibe throughout your home. Commute easily to school, work, and fun with plenty of highways, public transit, and airports nearby. You're not far from outdoor recreation, everyday conveniences, shopping, and dining. Experience life at Chaparral Ranch at The Preserve today! Offered By: K. Hovnanian Communities, Inc. The Amadora offers: Home office with sliding barn doors creates a defined, private workspace. Vaulted ceiling unifies the kitchen, great room & dining area with an open, airy feel. Ash Grey cabinetry & a wall oven give the kitchen a clean, contemporary look. Dual 12' multi-slide doors extend the main living areas to a spacious covered patio. Primary bath includes dual sinks & a freestanding soaking tub. 2-car garage provides everyday parking & storage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,128
• − Property taxes: −$7,800
• − Insurance: −$2,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,256
• − Management: −$2,256
• − HOA: −$2,364
• − Depreciation: −$15,127
• Taxable loss: −$33,330
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,999
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clovis Unified
• NCES district ID: 0609030
• Math proficiency: 58% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $71,950
• Composite: 58.7/100
• National rank: #2003
• State rank: #152 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Friant

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1341
• US rank: #26802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Friant, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,039

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 16% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.30%
• Current HPI: 334.9049
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-10.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $519,990 FRESNOMLS
• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $519,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $541,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $541,990 FRESNOMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $556,990 FRESNOMLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $556,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $566,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-26 Listed $581,990 Zillow