322 Lincoln Ave

La Junta, CO 81050

$125,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,080/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-11/mo
• Annual: $-126/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.36%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-126/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (13.6% below list).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#126 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• East Otero School District No. R1 (town): math 7% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #83 of 86 in CO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Otero County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $125k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.1% in La Junta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.