2714 Dowling St

West Orange, TX 77630

$92,000A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,426/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax + insurance: −$667
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $-23/mo
• Annual: $-276/yr
• Cap rate: 11.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.80%
• DSCR: 1.84
• 1% rule: 1.55%
• Cash to close: $25,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $92k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-276/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $88k (4.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($636 loan paydown + $929 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,075 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.