2714 Dowling St · West Orange, TX 77630

$92,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1948 0.32 ac lot Est $152k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Call for private showing Lisa Marino at 409-460-8764 Central air and heat is brand new.

Key facts

• Big backyard
• Close to schools
• Heart of west orange

Tags

• BIG BACKYARD
• MATURE TREES
• SPACIOUS LOT
• HEART OF WEST ORANGE
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-276/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $88k (4.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,075 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($636 loan paydown + $929 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,939 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.80%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $151,872
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
714 Sherrill St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+12%)	9mo	$190,000	$126	60
2707 Terrace Cir	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,289 (-4%)	10mo	$169,999	$132	60
1524 Longhorn Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,296 (-4%)	8mo	$139,900	$108	55
2705 Terrace Cir	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,240 (-8%)	9mo	$139,900	$113	53
2911 Kelly St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+4%)	18mo	$149,900	$108	50
1826 Bowie St	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,434 (+7%)	19mo	$138,000	$96	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $4,631
• Equity at exit: $31,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $38,171
• Equity at exit: $41,837

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77630

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,426 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,425/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,455

Max offer price $87,939

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2810 Gandy St West Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1613	$1,700	$1.05	43d	1	0.16mi
1543 Alamo St West Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1170	$1,200	$1.03	13d	1	0.49mi
309 Quincy St West Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1113	$1,200	$1.08	13d	1	0.56mi
406 Dayton St West Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,200	$0.89	43d	1	0.89mi
2602 Tanglewood St West Orange, TX	4.0	2.0	1306	$1,250	$0.96	13d	1	1.01mi
205 Gloria St West Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,300	$1.06	43d	1	1.01mi
206 Florence St Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1216	$1,425	$1.17	43d	1	1.03mi
210 Florence St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,425	$1.34	43d	1	1.05mi
101 Azalea Ave Unit A Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	43d	1	1.33mi
302 Bridal Wreath Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1182	$1,195	$1.01	43d	1	1.33mi
306 Bridal Wreath Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1529	$1,195	$0.78	21d	1	1.34mi
107 Dahlia St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1149	$1,300	$1.13	13d	1	1.34mi
3726 Bowling Ln Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1045	$1,150	$1.10	43d	1	1.36mi
3000 MacArthur Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	791	$1,330	$1.68	13d	12	1.36mi
1208 DuPont Dr Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	13d	1	1.39mi
403 Bluebonnet Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,300	$1.09	43d	1	1.41mi
310 Camellia Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	988	$1,295	$1.31	21d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $92,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $92,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $92,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $92,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $92,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $92,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $92,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $92,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $92,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    listed $92,000 Active
17. 2018-03-08
    soldstatus
18. 2018-03-05
    soldstatus 87-char remark

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Call for private showing Lisa Marino at 409-460-8764 Central air and heat is brand new.

19. 2017-12-21
    listed $70,000 87-char remark

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Call for private showing Lisa Marino at 409-460-8764 Central air and heat is brand new.

20. 2012-02-14
    soldstatus
21. 2007-08-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,425 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,425 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 98% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$2,425
• − Insurance: −$5,578
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,369
• − Management: −$1,369
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable loss: −$1,461
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$351
• After-tax cash flow: $75/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Orange-Cove CISD
• NCES district ID: 4845090
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,329
• Composite: 15.86/100
• National rank: #9260
• State rank: #784 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Orange

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1075
• US rank: #19069

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Orange, TX
• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• City population: 22,976
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,983
• Household income: $64,373
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 264.14
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+31.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $92,000 BBOR
• 2018-03-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-03-05 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2017-12-21 Listed $70,000 BBOR
• 2012-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-08-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+40.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,425 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.