127 Cumbia Ln

Brodnax, VA 23920

$263,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Pending · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,745/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,379
• Tax + insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $-169/mo
• Annual: $-2,025/yr
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.75%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $73,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $263k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-169 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (33.7% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#403 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lacrosse Elementary (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 360 students, 89% FRL); Mecklenburg County Middle (874 students, 88% FRL); Mecklenburg County High (1,163 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 54% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $263k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.