127 Cumbia Ln · Brodnax, VA 23920

$263,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1995 0.90 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 127 Cumbia Lane where country living meets town convenience. This well maintained site-built traditional ranch style home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, an indoor sun room, large eat-in kitchen with two pantries, bay window, and one year old stainless appliances. A formal dining room, laundry, and a bonus room that can be used as a gym, office, or playroom. The home also features a study with custom built-in bookcases, a desk with USB ports, and a gas fireplace with new logs. The property is nestled down a quiet tree lined private driveway in Mecklenburg County and is right under an acre. There is a large 6ft tall fenced in area to keep for your pets Beyond the fence th

Key facts

• Indoor sun room
• Large eat-in kitchen
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• INDOOR SUN ROOM
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• TWO PANTRIES
• BAY WINDOW
• CUSTOM BUILT-IN BOOKCASES
• GAS FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $263k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-169 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (33.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#403 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lacrosse Elementary (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 360 students, 89% FRL); Mecklenburg County Middle (874 students, 88% FRL); Mecklenburg County High (1,163 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 54% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $263k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,459 (33.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.75%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.03% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $21,244
• Equity at exit: $118,735

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $89,980
• Equity at exit: $183,357

Cash invested: $73,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23920

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,745 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,379
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $698/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $-169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,958

Max offer price $233,188

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-20	-5% $-94	+0% $-169	+5% $-243	+10% $-318
Rent	-10% $-307	-5% $-238	+0% $-169	+5% $-100	+10% $-31
Rate	-1.0pp $-36	-0.5pp $-102	base $-169	+0.5pp $-237	+1.0pp $-306

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,750
• Closing costs: $7,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-14
   price $263,000
3. 2026-01-14
   listed $267,000 Active
4. 2025-11-15
   status Active
5. 2025-11-15
   price $272,000
6. 2025-11-14
   status Pending
7. 2025-11-03
   listed $275,000 Active
8. 2008-02-21
   soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $698 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,157 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,458/yr (+$122/mo · 208.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,935
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,732
• − Property taxes: −$698
• − Insurance: −$1,315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,675
• − Management: −$1,675
• − Depreciation: −$7,651
• Taxable loss: −$6,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,635
• After-tax cash flow: $-390/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — Brodnax

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #403
• US rank: #16750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,080

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.03%
• Current HPI: 93.8737
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+110.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Pending — RVLG
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $263,000 RVLG
• 2026-01-14 Listed $267,000 RVLG
• 2025-11-15 Relisted — RVLG
• 2025-11-15 Price Changed $272,000 RVLG
• 2025-11-14 Pending — RVLG
• 2025-11-03 Listed $275,000 RVLG
• 2008-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $698 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.