1 , 3, 5 Francis Mills Rd

Freehold, NJ 07728

$639,000C-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · — sqft · Built — · MultiFamily · Active · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,625/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,351
• Tax + insurance: −$1,065
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,391
• Net cashflow: $818/mo
• Annual: $9,813/yr
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.48%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $178,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $639k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $818 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $639k).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($581k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $581k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#465 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime B, housing B; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute D-.
• Freehold Township School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #162 of 472 in NJ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 14 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $310k; list at $639k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 39% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.9% in Freehold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,625/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($114k/yr) (locally 1278% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen flooring — The vinyl flooring in the kitchen is dated and could be replaced with a more modern option.
• Minor: Bathroom fixtures — The bathrooms lack modern fixtures and could be updated with new sinks, toilets, and faucets.
• Moderate: Exterior siding — The exterior siding shows some discoloration and minor damage, which may require repainting or minor repairs.
• Minor: Interior walls — The interior walls show some signs of wear and tear, which could be addressed with a fresh coat of paint.
• Minor: Windows — The windows may benefit from new hardware or weatherstripping to improve energy efficiency and appearance.