1 , 3, 5 Francis Mills Rd · Freehold, NJ 07728

$639,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · — sqft · MultiFamily · 114 Days on market

Fair condition 1.14 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

WOW 3 Individual Homes for the price of 1 !!! Attention Landscape Companies, Multi Families Come See this Unique Property. Each Home offers Kitchen, Livingroom, 1 Bedroom and 1 bath, Laundry Hookup, Private Driveways, Room to Park lg Vehicles and Tremendous Yards . All Homes Have their own Electric Meters. Septic and Well. Additional Large Storage unit on site divided among homes. Septic is 5 Yrs Young... Great Alternative to Renting !!! ''As Is'' CO Responsibility of Buyer. Well & Septic Certs to close buyer to obtain.

Key facts

• 1.14 acre lot
• Listed 114 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $639k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $818 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $639k).
• Recommended offer: $581k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.9% in Freehold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#465 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime B, housing B; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute D-.
• Freehold Township School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #162 of 472 in NJ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,625/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($114k/yr) (locally 1278% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($581k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $310k; list at $639k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 39% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $581,490 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.48%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-62,828
• Equity at exit: $95,277

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-32,660
• Equity at exit: $55,249

Cash invested: $178,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07728

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 24.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,625 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,351
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$799 /mo · $9,585/yr
• Insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,391
• Net cashflow: $818

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,590

Max offer price $639,000

Occupancy floor 83%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	1	1	$6,624
Total (3 units)			$6,625

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $159,750
• Closing costs: $19,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $639,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-02-06
   listed $639,000 Active 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   WOW 3 Individual Homes for the price of 1 !!! Attention Landscape Companies, Multi Families Come See this Unique Property. Each Home offers Kitchen, Livingroom, 1 Bedroom and 1 bath, Laundry Hookup, Private Driveways, Room to Park lg Vehicles and Tremendous Yards . All Homes Have their own Electric Meters. Septic and Well. Additional Large Storage unit on site divided among homes. Septic is 5 Yrs Young... Great Alternative to Renting !!! ''As Is'' CO Responsibility of Buyer. Well & Septic Certs to close buyer to obtain.

3. 2026-02-06
   listed $639,000 Active 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   WOW 3 Individual Homes for the price of 1 !!! Attention Landscape Companies, Multi Families Come See this Unique Property. Each Home offers Kitchen, Livingroom, 1 Bedroom and 1 bath, Laundry Hookup, Private Driveways, Room to Park lg Vehicles and Tremendous Yards . All Homes Have their own Electric Meters. Septic and Well. Additional Large Storage unit on site divided among homes. Septic is 5 Yrs Young... Great Alternative to Renting !!! ''As Is'' CO Responsibility of Buyer. Well & Septic Certs to close buyer to obtain.

4. 2026-02-06
   historical $639,000 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   WOW 3 Individual Homes for the price of 1 !!! Attention Landscape Companies, Multi Families Come See this Unique Property. Each Home offers Kitchen, Livingroom, 1 Bedroom and 1 bath, Laundry Hookup, Private Driveways, Room to Park lg Vehicles and Tremendous Yards . All Homes Have their own Electric Meters. Septic and Well. Additional Large Storage unit on site divided among homes. Septic is 5 Yrs Young... Great Alternative to Renting !!! ''As Is'' CO Responsibility of Buyer. Well & Septic Certs to close buyer to obtain.

5. 2026-02-06
   historical $639,000 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   WOW 3 Individual Homes for the price of 1 !!! Attention Landscape Companies, Multi Families Come See this Unique Property. Each Home offers Kitchen, Livingroom, 1 Bedroom and 1 bath, Laundry Hookup, Private Driveways, Room to Park lg Vehicles and Tremendous Yards . All Homes Have their own Electric Meters. Septic and Well. Additional Large Storage unit on site divided among homes. Septic is 5 Yrs Young... Great Alternative to Renting !!! ''As Is'' CO Responsibility of Buyer. Well & Septic Certs to close buyer to obtain.

6. 2025-11-05
   listed $637,750 Active
7. 2025-04-26
   listed $629,000 Active
8. 2024-07-01
   listed $599,900 Active
9. 2024-07-01
   listed $599,900 Active
10. 2024-01-31
    listed $629,000 Active
11. 2024-01-31
    listed $629,000 Active
12. 2023-09-25
    listed $629,000 Active
13. 2023-09-02
    historical
14. 2023-09-02
    status Active
15. 2023-09-01
    historical
16. 2023-07-01
    price $629,000
17. 2023-01-06
    price $599,000
18. 2022-08-28
    historical
19. 2022-08-28
    listed $619,000 Active
20. 2022-06-07
    status Active
21. 2022-04-27
    status Pending
22. 2022-04-08
    historical Active/Under Contract
23. 2021-12-16
    price $599,000
24. 2021-09-24
    listed $624,750 Active
25. 2019-06-07
    soldstatus $310,000 Sold
26. 2019-02-19
    status Pending
27. 2019-02-11
    listed $315,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 39% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $79,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,794
• − Property taxes: −$9,585
• − Insurance: −$3,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,360
• − Management: −$6,360
• − Depreciation: −$18,589
• Taxable loss: −$383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$92
• After-tax cash flow: $9,905/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property presents as a moderate renovation opportunity with average condition across most areas. Upgrading the kitchen and exterior can significantly increase its value for both resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen flooring — The vinyl flooring in the kitchen is dated and could be replaced with a more modern option.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — The bathrooms lack modern fixtures and could be updated with new sinks, toilets, and faucets.
• Moderate Exterior siding — The exterior siding shows some discoloration and minor damage, which may require repainting or minor repairs.
• Minor Interior walls — The interior walls show some signs of wear and tear, which could be addressed with a fresh coat of paint.
• Minor Windows — The windows may benefit from new hardware or weatherstripping to improve energy efficiency and appearance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Kitchen renovation — Updating the kitchen with modern appliances and fixtures can significantly increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Exterior painting — Painting the exterior siding can improve curb appeal and add value to the property.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Trimming and improving the landscaping can enhance the property's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen flooring · The vinyl flooring in the kitchen is dated and could be replaced with a more modern option.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · The bathrooms lack modern fixtures and could be updated with new sinks, toilets, and faucets.	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · The exterior siding shows some discoloration and minor damage, which may require repainting or minor repairs.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Interior walls · The interior walls show some signs of wear and tear, which could be addressed with a fresh coat of paint.	Minor	$500–3,000
Windows · The windows may benefit from new hardware or weatherstripping to improve energy efficiency and appearance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$5,000–27,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Kitchen renovation — Updating the kitchen with modern appliances and fixtures can significantly increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Exterior painting — Painting the exterior siding can improve curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Trimming and improving the landscaping can enhance the property's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Freehold Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3405640
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $97,353
• Composite: 42.27/100
• National rank: #3271
• State rank: #162 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Freehold

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #465
• US rank: #17777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living F Crime B Employment B- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• City population: 55,984
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 55,984
• Household income: $114,072
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1278.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 7% Asian 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -442.26%
• Current HPI: 319.7562
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.25%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+102.9% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $639,000 MOMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $639,000 MOMLS
• 2026-02-06 Coming Soon $639,000 MOMLS
• 2026-02-06 Coming Soon $639,000 MOMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $637,750 MOMLS
• 2025-04-26 Listed $629,000 MOMLS
• 2024-07-01 Listed $599,900 MOMLS
• 2024-07-01 Listed $599,900 MOMLS
• 2024-01-31 Listed $629,000 MOMLS
• 2024-01-31 Listed $629,000 MOMLS
• 2023-09-25 Listed $629,000 MOMLS
• 2023-09-02 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2023-09-02 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2023-09-01 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2023-07-01 Price Changed $629,000 MOMLS
• 2023-01-06 Price Changed $599,000 MOMLS
• 2022-08-28 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2022-08-28 Listed $619,000 MOMLS
• 2022-06-07 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2022-04-27 Pending — MOMLS
• 2022-04-08 Contingent — MOMLS
• 2021-12-16 Price Changed $599,000 MOMLS
• 2021-09-24 Listed $624,750 MOMLS
• 2019-06-07 Sold (MLS) $310,000 MOMLS
• 2019-02-19 Pending — MOMLS
• 2019-02-11 Listed $315,000 MOMLS