11006 S Fm 225

Henderson, TX 75667

$55,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Pending · 192 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,211/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $457/mo
• Annual: $5,486/yr
• Cap rate: 16.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.63%
• DSCR: 2.59
• 1% rule: 2.20%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $457 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#408 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Laneville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #572 of 1,141 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Rusk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rusk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 2.9% in Henderson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.