538 Fleetwood St

Warm Mineral Springs, FL 34287

$150,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 888 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,628/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$549
• HOA: −$8
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-57/mo
• Annual: $-688/yr
• Cap rate: 9.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.55%
• DSCR: 1.47
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-688/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (6.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#604 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Glenallen Elementary School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C, #936 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 716 students, 79% FRL); Heron Creek Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 902 students, 72% FRL); North Port High School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade D+, #171 of 667 statewide, top 26%, 2,562 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 42% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 857 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $150k implies a 275% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.