16103 Hickory Ln

Urbandale, IA 50323

$739,900D-

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,943 sqft · Built 2015 · Other · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,354/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,880
• Tax + insurance: −$1,298
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-3,332/mo
• Annual: $-39,983/yr
• Cap rate: 0.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.30%
• DSCR: 0.14
• 1% rule: 0.32%
• Cash to close: $207,172

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath other listed at $740k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-40k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (67.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (68.2% below list).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($718k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $235k (68.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#4 in IA, #69 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: commute F.
• Waukee Community School District (suburban): math 80% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #14 of 289 in IA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 378 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,503 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (630 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at +74% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $600k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 0.9% vs local median 2.4% in Urbandale — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($176k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 68% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.