16103 Hickory Ln · Urbandale, IA 50323

$739,900

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,943 sqft · Other public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2015 0.29 ac lot $188/sqft · 40% below area Est $880k · 16% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +7.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.2/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is perfect……be a part of exciting new neighborhood, but take advantage of exterior finishes being finished on prior building cost. Work with interior designer and make this home perfect for your family! Open kitchen with lots of cabinets and large island. Dining area walks out to covered deck with fireplace and then into flat yard with mature pines. Mudroom with lockers & closet. Large laundry with sink. Private first floor den. Owner’s suite up with 2 walk in closets, bubble tub, and many tile details including shower. Two bedrooms share a bath and third bedroom has private bath. Lower level has full bar, family room with space for pool table or games, 5th bedroom & bath. Home has irrigation, central vac, all appliance including 2 refrigerators, & landscaping including large trees. Great location-away from busy streets, yet easy access to everything! Listing agent has interest. This home on 2016 pricing. Built to order cost up 5%.

Key facts

• Three-season room
• Full bar
• Chef's kitchen

Tags

• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• THREE-SEASON ROOM
• DOUBLE-SIDED FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE MAIN-FLOOR OFFICE
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• FULL BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned residential
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Acadia / Acadia Custom Homes LLC); Annual association fee of $160

Exterior

• Parking: Attached three-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (standard)
• Home design: Two-story home; Brick and cement siding exterior
• Construction: Built by Accurate Development; Asphalt shingle roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Rectangular lot; Concrete road/driveway; Smoke detectors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Stove; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms present (specific count not provided)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 three-quarter bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wet bar; Central vacuum; Dining area; Window treatments; Finished daylight basement; 1,120 sq ft of finished below-grade space
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath other listed at $740k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-40k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (67.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (68.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (68.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 0.9% vs local median 2.4% in Urbandale — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#4 in IA, #69 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: commute F.
• Waukee Community School District (suburban): math 80% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #14 of 289 in IA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 378 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,503 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (630 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($176k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +74% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($718k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $600k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $235,382 (68.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 68% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.32% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.30%
• DSCR: 0.14
• GRM: 26.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $880,290
• List price: $739,900
• Delta: -15.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-49,701
• Equity at exit: $410,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $37,443
• Equity at exit: $701,714

Cash invested: $207,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50323

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 378
• Price-to-rent: 26.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,354 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,880
• Tax from tax record: −$990 /mo · $11,880/yr
• Insurance: −$308
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-3,332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,571

Max offer price $237,600

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $184,975
• Closing costs: $22,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $739,900 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $739,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $739,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $739,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $739,900 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $739,900 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $739,900 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $739,900 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $739,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $739,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $739,900 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $739,900 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $739,900 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $739,900 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $739,900 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $739,900 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $749,900 Active 1359-char remark
18. 2026-04-28
    historical
19. 2026-04-15
    price $769,000
20. 2026-03-26
    price $779,900
21. 2026-02-12
    listed $789,900 Active
22. 2018-03-22
    soldstatus $600,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    This is perfect……be a part of exciting new neighborhood, but take advantage of exterior finishes being finished on prior building cost. Work with interior designer and make this home perfect for your family! Open kitchen with lots of cabinets and large island. Dining area walks out to covered deck with fireplace and then into flat yard with mature pines. Mudroom with lockers & closet. Large laundry with sink. Private first floor den. Owner’s suite up with 2 walk in closets, bubble tub, and many tile details including shower. Two bedrooms share a bath and third bedroom has private bath. Lower level has full bar, family room with space for pool table or games, 5th bedroom & bath. Home has irrigation, central vac, all appliance including 2 refrigerators, & landscaping including large trees. Great location-away from busy streets, yet easy access to everything! Listing agent has interest. This home on 2016 pricing. Built to order cost up 5%.

23. 2017-02-02
    listed $610,000

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    This is perfect……be a part of exciting new neighborhood, but take advantage of exterior finishes being finished on prior building cost. Work with interior designer and make this home perfect for your family! Open kitchen with lots of cabinets and large island. Dining area walks out to covered deck with fireplace and then into flat yard with mature pines. Mudroom with lockers & closet. Large laundry with sink. Private first floor den. Owner’s suite up with 2 walk in closets, bubble tub, and many tile details including shower. Two bedrooms share a bath and third bedroom has private bath. Lower level has full bar, family room with space for pool table or games, 5th bedroom & bath. Home has irrigation, central vac, all appliance including 2 refrigerators, & landscaping including large trees. Great location-away from busy streets, yet easy access to everything! Listing agent has interest. This home on 2016 pricing. Built to order cost up 5%.

24. 2017-02-01
    historical
25. 2016-02-01
    listed $610,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,880 · $990/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,880 · $990/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$41,446
• − Property taxes: −$11,880
• − Insurance: −$3,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,260
• − Management: −$2,260
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$21,524
• Taxable loss: −$54,979
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13,195
• After-tax cash flow: $-26,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waukee Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1930510
• Math proficiency: 80% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $88,580
• Composite: 70.94/100
• National rank: #245
• State rank: #14 of 289 in IA

Livability — Urbandale

• Score: 90/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #69

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Urbandale, IA
• County: Polk County · 453,298 people
• City population: 49,196
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• Population (ZIP): 17,265
• Household income: $175,944
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 63.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,904 people
• By 2030: 127,807 · +14.2%
• By 2040: 160,576 · +43.5%
• By 2050: 194,154 · +73.5%
• By 2075: 271,895 · +143.0%
• By 2100: 326,525 · +191.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 6% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.9% · R 51.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -5.5pp · 2024: -4.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.8 2020: R+2.0 2016: R+9.6 2012: R+11.8 2008: R+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.81%
• Current HPI: 199.789
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+21.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $739,900 DMMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $749,900 DMMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listing Removed — DMMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $769,000 DMMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $779,900 DMMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $789,900 DMMLS
• 2018-03-22 Sold (MLS) $600,000 DMMLS
• 2017-02-02 Listed $610,000 DMMLS
• 2017-02-01 Listing Removed — DMMLS
• 2016-02-01 Listed $610,000 DMMLS

Property tax history

+115.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,880 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.