8386 Willow Dr

Lyons, MI 48851

$75,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 450 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,001/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$199
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $199/mo
• Annual: $2,387/yr
• Cap rate: 10.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.16%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $199 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#632 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Portland Public Schools (town): math 30% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #191 of 540 in MI (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oakwood Elementary School (497 students, 41% FRL); Portland Middle School (math 24% / reading 45%, grade F, #289 of 493 statewide, top 60%, 415 students, 31% FRL); Portland High School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #187 of 713 statewide, top 29%, 702 students, 27% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 94 units permitted in Ionia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ionia County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen appliances — Signs of wear and tear.
• Major: bathroom fixtures — Visible signs of wear.
• Major: exterior paint — Peeling and weathered paint.
• Major: flooring — Significant wear and tear.
• Major: interior paint — Chipped and worn paint.
• Major: landscaping — Needs landscaping and curb appeal improvements.