8386 Willow Dr · Lyons, MI 48851

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 450 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1976 Fair condition 0.54 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hurry to see this beautiful 0.54-acre lot nestled on the back side of Weber Dam on the Grand River! Offering approximately 6 miles of navigable water, this property is an absolute dream for boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation. The property features a well-maintained, well-loved 2-bedroom, 1-bath older mobile home that is perfect for relaxing summer evenings around the campfire. Additional highlights include a practical well house with extra storage space and a second storage shed to easily house all your outdoor gear and water toys. Don't miss out on this affordable riverfront escape!

Key facts

• Boating
• Well house
• Outdoor recreation

Tags

• 0.54-ACRE LOT
• NAVIGABLE WATER
• BOATING
• FISHING
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• WELL HOUSE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water
• Home design: Residential property; Other architectural style; Built in 1976
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Aluminum roof
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Waterfront on the Grand River; 0.54-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Total of 5 rooms; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $199 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#632 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Portland Public Schools (town): math 30% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #191 of 540 in MI (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 94 units permitted in Ionia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ionia County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.16%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $576
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $17,060
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48851

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,001 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,212/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $749

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $220	+0% $199	+5% $178	+10% $156
Rent	-10% $120	-5% $159	+0% $199	+5% $238	+10% $278
Rate	-1.0pp $237	-0.5pp $218	base $199	+0.5pp $179	+1.0pp $160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $75,000 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $75,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $75,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $75,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $75,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-05-28
    listed $75,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    Hurry to see this beautiful 0.54-acre lot nestled on the back side of Weber Dam on the Grand River! Offering approximately 6 miles of navigable water, this property is an absolute dream for boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation. The property features a well-maintained, well-loved 2-bedroom, 1-bath older mobile home that is perfect for relaxing summer evenings around the campfire. Additional highlights include a practical well house with extra storage space and a second storage shed to easily house all your outdoor gear and water toys. Don't miss out on this affordable riverfront escape!

12. 2026-05-28
    listed $75,000 Active 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    Hurry to see this beautiful 0.54-acre lot nestled on the back side of Weber Dam on the Grand River! Offering approximately 6 miles of navigable water, this property is an absolute dream for boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation. The property features a well-maintained, well-loved 2-bedroom, 1-bath older mobile home that is perfect for relaxing summer evenings around the campfire. Additional highlights include a practical well house with extra storage space and a second storage shed to easily house all your outdoor gear and water toys. Don't miss out on this affordable riverfront escape!

13. 2026-05-28
    listed $75,000 Active 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    Hurry to see this beautiful 0.54-acre lot nestled on the back side of Weber Dam on the Grand River! Offering approximately 6 miles of navigable water, this property is an absolute dream for boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation. The property features a well-maintained, well-loved 2-bedroom, 1-bath older mobile home that is perfect for relaxing summer evenings around the campfire. Additional highlights include a practical well house with extra storage space and a second storage shed to easily house all your outdoor gear and water toys. Don't miss out on this affordable riverfront escape!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,212
• − Insurance: −$1,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$961
• − Management: −$961
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $1,324
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$318
• After-tax cash flow: $2,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Key areas for improvement include the kitchen, bathroom, exterior, and landscaping.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen appliances — Signs of wear and tear.
• Major bathroom fixtures — Visible signs of wear.
• Major exterior paint — Peeling and weathered paint.
• Major flooring — Significant wear and tear.
• Major interior paint — Chipped and worn paint.
• Major landscaping — Needs landscaping and curb appeal improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both kitchen renovation — Modernizing the kitchen can significantly increase both resale and rental value.
• Both bathroom renovation — Updating the bathroom can also boost both resale and rental value.
• Both exterior paint job — A fresh paint job can improve curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard can enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen appliances · Signs of wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · Visible signs of wear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Peeling and weathered paint.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Significant wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior paint · Chipped and worn paint.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Needs landscaping and curb appeal improvements.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both kitchen renovation — Modernizing the kitchen can significantly increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both bathroom renovation — Updating the bathroom can also boost both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both exterior paint job — A fresh paint job can improve curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard can enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Portland Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2629120
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $61,869
• Composite: 35.55/100
• National rank: #4905
• State rank: #191 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lyons

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #632
• US rank: #21244

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,310

Population outlook (Ionia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,958 people
• By 2030: 63,321 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 61,544 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 58,682 · -8.2%
• By 2075: 48,909 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 35,867 · -43.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ionia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.9) · D 33.3% · R 65.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -5.8pp · 2024: -31.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.9 2020: R+30.3 2016: R+31.0 2012: R+12.8 2008: R+5.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.52%
• Current HPI: 207.5807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-28 Listed $75,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-28 Listed $75,000 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,212 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.