1825 Harden Rd

Zebulon, GA 30295

$269,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,763/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$272
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-295/mo
• Annual: $-3,543/yr
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.69%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-295 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (34.7% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#463 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pike County (rural): math 32% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #64 of 174 in GA (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pike County Primary School (804 students, 36% FRL); Pike County Middle School (math 23% / reading 38%, grade F, #240 of 470 statewide, top 51%, 836 students, 32% FRL); Pike County High School (math 19% / reading 8%, grade F, #330 of 424 statewide, top 78%, 1,105 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pike County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 9 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $215k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.6% in Zebulon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.