2807 Geary Pl #2501

Winchester, NV 89109

$174,900C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 897 sqft · Built 1973 · Condo · Active · 170 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,072/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$448
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $130/mo
• Annual: $1,560/yr
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.19%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $48,972

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#3 in NV, #2,272 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Clark County School District (urban): math 21% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #11 of 17 in NV (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 352 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 14,754 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (2,301 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clark County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $175k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,072/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 836% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.