510 Post Way

Tubac, AZ 85646

$274,000B+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,578 sqft · Built 2005 · Townhouse · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,987/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax + insurance: −$321
• HOA: −$194
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$837
• Net cashflow: $1,198/mo
• Annual: $14,375/yr
• Cap rate: 11.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.74%
• DSCR: 1.83
• 1% rule: 1.46%
• Cash to close: $76,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $274k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $274k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($270k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $270k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-389 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#60 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Cayetano Elementary School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #810 of 1,109 statewide, top 73%, 393 students, 69% FRL); Coatimundi Middle School (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #109 of 218 statewide, top 51%, 473 students, 69% FRL); Rio Rico High School (math 13% / reading 21%, grade F, #252 of 381 statewide, top 67%, 1,414 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 12 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $131k; list at $274k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 3.5% in Tubac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.