510 Post Way · Tubac, AZ 85646

$274,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,578 sqft · Townhouse · 24 Days on market

Built 2005 1,507 sqft lot Est $336k · 18% under $194/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious Embarcadero townhome in Tubac Arizona! Interior highlights include tile flooring, beam ceilings, and kiva fireplace Enjoy Two primary suites with walk-in closets, one conveniently located on the main level, and another privately situated upstairs. Additional main floor bedroom and half bath adds versatility for guests, office, hobby space. Embarcadero amenities include fitness studio, pool, spa and walking trail connecting to the historic De Anza Trail with the Village of Tubac to the North and Tumacacori Mission to the South. Minutes away from the historic Tubac Village, consistently rated as one of the Best Small Town Arts Scenes by USA Today. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Walking trail
• Tubac village
• Kiva fireplace

Tags

• KIVA FIREPLACE
• FITNESS STUDIO
• WALKING TRAIL
• HISTORIC DE ANZA TRAIL
• TUBAC VILLAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Embarcadero community; HOA includes common area and street maintenance; Quarterly HOA fee (monthly equivalent listed separately); Association amenities: park, pool, recreation room, spa/hot tub; Community features: pool, spa, fitness center, paved streets, sidewalks, walking trail

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered/carport space
• Security: Smoke detectors; Wrought iron security door
• Utilities: Water from local water company; Sewer connected; Phone connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Two stories; Irregular lot dimensions; Facing east/west exposure
• Construction: Frame with stucco exterior; Stucco finish; Built-up roof
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio; Patio; Shrubs; East/West exposure; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Two-level townhouse layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; Walk-in closet(s); High ceilings; Has fireplace (Beehive gas fireplace in great room)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in kitchen; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $274k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $274k).
• Recommended offer: $270k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 3.5% in Tubac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#60 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Cayetano Elementary School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #810 of 1,109 statewide, top 73%, 393 students, 69% FRL); Coatimundi Middle School (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #109 of 218 statewide, top 51%, 473 students, 69% FRL); Rio Rico High School (math 13% / reading 21%, grade F, #252 of 381 statewide, top 67%, 1,414 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-389 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($270k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $131k; list at $274k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,890 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.74%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $336,114
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 Post Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,489 (-6%)	1mo	$280,000	$188	86
1111 Lombard Way	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,607 (+2%)	10mo	$285,000	$177	82
901 Lombard Way	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,454 (-8%)	3mo	$325,000	$224	81
1611 Golden Gate Way	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,563 (-1%)	14mo	$340,000	$218	73
206 Post Way	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,480 (-6%)	24mo	$315,000	$213	67
134 Calle Barrio De Tubac	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,625 (+3%)	24mo	$385,000	$237	66
204 Post Way	0.06mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,354 (-14%)	6mo	$280,000	$207	64
114 Calle Barrio de Tubac	0.05mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,814 (+15%)	9mo	$374,000	$206	60
30 Circulo Diego Rivera	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (+10%)	1mo	$275,000	$158	56
130 Calle Barrio De Tubac	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,462 (-7%)	13mo	$425,000	$291	50
2226 Paseo Tumacacori	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,804 (+14%)	14mo	$425,000	$236	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $66,556
• Equity at exit: $77,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $190,493
• Equity at exit: $91,773

Cash invested: $76,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85646

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,987 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,485/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$194
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$837
• Net cashflow: $1,198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,471

Max offer price $274,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,500
• Closing costs: $8,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $194 · $2,328/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $274,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $285,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-25
    listed $285,000 Active
16. 2026-04-25
    historical
17. 2025-10-01
    listed $295,000 Active
18. 2023-09-20
    historical
19. 2022-12-06
    listed $365,000 Active
20. 2014-12-30
    soldstatus $131,000
21. 2014-12-30
    soldstatus $131,000
22. 2014-10-29
    listed $129,900
23. 2014-09-13
    historical
24. 2014-09-12
    historical
25. 2013-09-13
    listed $135,000
26. 2013-09-12
    listed $135,000
27. 2013-08-14
    historical
28. 2013-08-14
    historical
29. 2013-03-11
    listed $137,500
30. 2013-03-11
    listed $137,500
31. 2012-10-18
    soldstatus $89,725
32. 2012-10-18
    soldstatus $89,725
33. 2012-06-07
    listed $109,900
34. 2012-06-07
    listed $109,900
35. 2011-08-30
    historical
36. 2011-08-30
    historical
37. 2010-08-30
    listed $195,000
38. 2010-08-30
    listed $195,000
39. 2006-10-20
    soldstatus $245,542

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,485 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,485 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,348
• − Property taxes: −$2,485
• − Insurance: −$1,370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,828
• − Management: −$3,828
• − HOA: −$2,328
• − Depreciation: −$7,971
• Taxable income: $10,691
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,566
• After-tax cash flow: $11,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tubac

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #10219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tubac, AZ
• City population: 1,280
• Population (ZIP): 1,280

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.14%
• Current HPI: 298.5755
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+16.1% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $285,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-01 Listed $295,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-09-20 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2022-12-06 Listed $365,000 MLSSAZ
• 2014-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $131,000 Public Records
• 2014-12-30 Sold (MLS) $131,000 MLSSAZ
• 2014-10-29 Listed $129,900 MLSSAZ
• 2014-09-13 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2014-09-12 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2013-09-13 Listed $135,000 MLSSAZ
• 2013-09-12 Listed $135,000 MLSSAZ
• 2013-08-14 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2013-08-14 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2013-03-11 Listed $137,500 MLSSAZ
• 2013-03-11 Listed $137,500 MLSSAZ
• 2012-10-18 Sold (MLS) $89,725 MLSSAZ
• 2012-10-18 Sold (MLS) $89,725 MLSSAZ
• 2012-06-07 Listed $109,900 MLSSAZ
• 2012-06-07 Listed $109,900 MLSSAZ
• 2011-08-30 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2011-08-30 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2010-08-30 Listed $195,000 MLSSAZ
• 2010-08-30 Listed $195,000 MLSSAZ
• 2006-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $245,542 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,485 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.