4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,280 sqft ·
Built 2007
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 14 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,758/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,390
Tax + insurance
−$184
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$369
Net cashflow
$-184/mo
Annual
$-2,211/yr
Cap rate
5.46%
Cash-on-cash
-2.98%
DSCR
0.87
1% rule
0.66%
Cash to close
$74,200
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-184 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (12.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (33.6% below list).
Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $176k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#403 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
Lunenburg County Public School District (rural): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #110 of 131 in VA (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Lunenburg Middle (math 23% / reading 63%, grade D-, #288 of 342 statewide, top 85%, 332 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 60% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Lunenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lunenburg County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $20k; list at $265k implies a 1225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-XNDFM761F35WWK
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29