5664 Siesta Ln

River Pines, CA 95684

$122,900B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 641 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 195 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,830/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax + insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $570/mo
• Annual: $6,841/yr
• Cap rate: 11.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.88%
• DSCR: 1.88
• 1% rule: 1.49%
• Cash to close: $34,412

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $123k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $570 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $123k).
• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $850 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,249 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pioneer Union Elementary (rural): math 30% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #638 of 1,400 in CA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pioneer Elementary (math 22%, 170 students, 45% FRL); Mountain Creek Middle (math 27%, 81 students, 52% FRL); Union Mine High (math 31% / reading 66%, grade D, #373 of 1,170 statewide, top 32%, 1,066 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 2.9% in River Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.