5664 Siesta Ln · River Pines, CA 95684

$122,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 641 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 195 Days on market

Built 1957 0.27 ac lot Est $191k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

AUCTION: Great Opportunity to own this single-family home oozing with potential. This home was built in 1957 and features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, with plenty of living space. * * * SPECIAL NOTES: (1) This is a CASH ONLY transaction. (2) Seller to pay Taxes, HOA, and Municipal/Utility Liens. (3) Please read the Auction disclaimers carefully before placing a bid.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Built 1957
• Listed 195 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living/building area recorded as 641 (assessor auto-fill); Lot size approximately 11,761 sq ft (0.27 acres)
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Security: Security features noted in remarks
• Utilities: Water: public (additional details noted in remarks); Sewer: septic tank (additional details noted in remarks); Utilities details noted in remarks
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Built in 1957; Foundation details noted in remarks
• Exterior features: Entry level: 0; Lot features noted in remarks; Irrigation: none; Zoning R1

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: See remarks for flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Baseboard heating; Evaporative cooling; Laundry details noted in remarks; Flooring details noted in remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details noted in remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $123k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $570 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $123k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 2.9% in River Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,249 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pioneer Union Elementary (rural): math 30% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #638 of 1,400 in CA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pioneer Elementary (math 22%, 170 students, 45% FRL); Mountain Creek Middle (math 27%, 81 students, 52% FRL); Union Mine High (math 31% / reading 66%, grade D, #373 of 1,170 statewide, top 32%, 1,066 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $850 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,152 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.88%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,018
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6638 Summer Way	0.11mi	2/1.0	704 (+10%)	2mo	$210,000	$298	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $16,438
• Equity at exit: $18,325

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $61,246
• Equity at exit: $10,626

Cash invested: $34,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95684

• Home prices YoY: -5.0%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,830 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,157/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $570

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,108

Max offer price $122,900

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $640	-5% $605	+0% $570	+5% $535	+10% $501
Rent	-10% $426	-5% $498	+0% $570	+5% $642	+10% $715
Rate	-1.0pp $632	-0.5pp $601	base $570	+0.5pp $538	+1.0pp $506

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,725
• Closing costs: $3,687
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $122,900 Active 195 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $122,900 Active 193 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $122,900 Active 192 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $122,900 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $122,900 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $122,900 Active 189 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $122,900 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $122,900 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $122,900 Active 184 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $122,900 Active 183 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $122,900 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $122,900 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $122,900 Active 178 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $122,900 Active 177 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $122,900 Active 176 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $122,900 Active 175 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $122,900 Active 174 DOM
18. 2025-12-08
    listed $122,900 Active
19. 2025-04-01
    price $122,900
20. 2024-10-15
    listed $182,900 Active
21. 2017-09-13
    soldstatus $180,000
22. 2004-09-20
    soldstatus $200,000
23. 2001-11-21
    soldstatus $60,000
24. 1990-05-23
    soldstatus $89,000
25. 1990-05-23
    soldstatus $89,000
26. 1982-11-04
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,157 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,157 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,884
• − Property taxes: −$2,157
• − Insurance: −$614
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,757
• − Management: −$1,757
• − Depreciation: −$3,575
• Taxable income: $5,213
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,251
• After-tax cash flow: $5,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pioneer Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0630480
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,807
• Composite: 39.11/100
• National rank: #8246
• State rank: #638 of 1400 in CA

Livability — River Pines

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #1249
• US rank: #26337

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 345
• Population (ZIP): 2,637

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.72%
• Current HPI: 240.1455
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+179.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-08 Listed $122,900 San Francisco MLS
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $122,900 San Francisco MLS
• 2024-10-15 Listed $182,900 San Francisco MLS
• 2017-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2001-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1990-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 1990-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 1982-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,157 · -9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.