26761 Deertrail Dr

Bear Valley Springs, CA 93561

$150,000B-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,480 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,860/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$477
• HOA: −$171
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $825/mo
• Annual: $9,905/yr
• Cap rate: 12.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.58%
• DSCR: 2.05
• 1% rule: 1.91%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $825 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#942 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tehachapi Unified (town): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #285 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cummings Valley Elementary (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #599 of 1,571 statewide, top 39%, 586 students, 24% FRL); Jacobsen Middle (math 20% / reading 38%, grade F, #224 of 498 statewide, top 46%, 917 students, 33% FRL); Tehachapi High (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #434 of 1,170 statewide, top 39%, 1,254 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 658 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $130k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 2.8% in Bear Valley Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.