26761 Deertrail Dr · Bear Valley Springs, CA 93561

$150,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1977 1.59 ac lot $171/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors, contractors, and visionaries, this property presents a unique opportunity for those ready to unlock its full potential. The home is being sold strictly as-is, where-is, with no repairs, credits, or clean-up to be performed by the seller. All personal property, furniture, equipment, and debris currently located on the property, both interior and exterior will remain and convey with the sale, becoming the buyer's property at close of escrow. Seller will make no representations or warranties and will not remove or clear any items prior to closing. Perfect for cash buyers, renovation projects, redevelopment, or those seeking a value-add investment. Buyers are encouraged t

Key facts

• 1.59 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $825 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 2.8% in Bear Valley Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#942 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tehachapi Unified (town): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #285 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 658 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $130k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.58%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $503,440
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26761 Deertrail Dr	0.00mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,480 (0%)	1mo	$175,000	$71	94
26950 Owl Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	2,344 (-6%)	11mo	$475,000	$203	62
27341 Deertrail Dr	0.50mi	2/3.0 (-1)	2,368 (-4%)	5mo	$415,000	$175	60
26511 Teal Ct	0.50mi	3/3.0	2,310 (-7%)	8mo	$470,000	$203	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $20,306
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $54,641
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93561

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,860 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$414 /mo · $4,971/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$171
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $825

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,816

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $910	-5% $868	+0% $825	+5% $783	+10% $741
Rent	-10% $599	-5% $712	+0% $825	+5% $938	+10% $1,051
Rate	-1.0pp $901	-0.5pp $864	base $825	+0.5pp $787	+1.0pp $747

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26511 Teal Ct Tehachapi, CA	3.0	3.0	2310	$3,500	$1.52	4d	1	0.51mi
26120 Deertrail Dr Tehachapi, CA	3.0	2.0	1784	$2,495	$1.40	20d	1	0.73mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $171 · $2,052/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 1998-09-03
   soldstatus $130,000
2. 1991-11-18
   soldstatus $177,500
3. 1987-02-26
   soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,971 · $414/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,971 · $414/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,326
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$4,971
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,746
• − Management: −$2,746
• − HOA: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $8,295
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,991
• After-tax cash flow: $7,914/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tehachapi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638880
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,230
• Composite: 29.52/100
• National rank: #6497
• State rank: #285 of 517 in CA

Livability — Bear Valley Springs

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #942
• US rank: #24344

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bear Valley Springs, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,175
• Household income: $87,357
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 568.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.70%
• Current HPI: 371.6546
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.05%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+4.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 1998-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 1991-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $177,500 Public Records
• 1987-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,971 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.