12320 Space Dr

Black Jack, MO 63033

$199,000B-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,597 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,132/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$317
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $324/mo
• Annual: $3,883/yr
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.97%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Townsend Elem. (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,007 of 1,115 statewide, top 91%, 371 students, 78% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 6.2% in Black Jack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.