12320 Space Dr · Black Jack, MO 63033

$199,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,597 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1966 0.34 ac lot Est $219k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming raised ranch, large lot. 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms. This is an unfinished flip project. Only needs a bit more to complete for a full retail sale. Great floorplan, large two car garage. Partially finished lower level. 4 spacious bedrooms. Finish this project for instant equity!

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1966

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half levels
• Construction: Construction materials: See remarks
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.345 acres; Lot features: Other

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms (2 on main level, 1 in basement)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partially finished basement with walk-out access and a bathroom; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 6.2% in Black Jack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Townsend Elem. (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,007 of 1,115 statewide, top 91%, 371 students, 78% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.97%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,789
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12455 Jerries Ln	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,638 (+3%)	4mo	$244,900	$150	73
5349 Trailoaks Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,625 (+2%)	3mo	$229,000	$141	73
5227 Suntrail Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (+8%)	2mo	$200,000	$116	55
12050 Maidstone Ct	0.51mi	4/2.5	1,794 (+12%)	2mo	$200,000	$111	54
5325 Springtrail Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	1,831 (+15%)	2mo	$250,000	$137	54
5239 Trailoaks Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (+6%)	7mo	$225,000	$132	52
12550 Evening Shade Dr	0.74mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,664 (+4%)	1mo	$250,000	$150	51
5237 Trailview Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-12%)	0mo	$208,000	$148	43
12539 Early Morning Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,412 (-12%)	1mo	$225,000	$159	40
6805 Trois Ct	0.64mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,813 (+14%)	2mo	$199,000	$110	37
12796 Merribrook Dr	0.67mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,818 (+14%)	2mo	$215,000	$118	36
11922 La Padera Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,374 (-14%)	8mo	$154,900	$113	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $139,129
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.50×
• Total profit: $418,136
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,132 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,813/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,723

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5320 Springtrail Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.5	1712	$2,390	$1.40	21d	1	0.40mi
5364 Trailview Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	3.0	1992	$2,330	$1.17	21d	1	0.46mi
12303 Benham Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1845	$1,771	$0.96	17d	1	0.92mi
12810 Verwood Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,026	$1.44	43d	1	0.93mi
11969 Continental Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	1.5	1075	$1,325	$1.23	1d	3	1.11mi
12887 Fox Haven Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1135	$1,750	$1.54	43d	1	1.20mi
1911 Redman Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1454	$1,495	$1.03	2d	1	1.26mi
6431 Brown Fox Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1105	$1,905	$1.72	21d	1	1.28mi
11321 Amboy Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1182	$1,756	$1.49	1d	1	1.39mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	2d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    remarks 284-char remark
11. 2026-06-05
    listed $199,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,813 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,813 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,813
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,047
• − Management: −$2,047
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $749
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$180
• After-tax cash flow: $3,703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $199,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1966-12-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,813 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.