138 Bayside Ln

Harvest, AL 35773

$224,900D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Active · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,473/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax + insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $-210/mo
• Annual: $-2,517/yr
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.00%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $62,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (34.5% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $147k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#27 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Madison County (rural): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #19 of 129 in AL (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Madison Cross Roads Elementary School (math 14% / reading 48%, grade F, #360 of 627 statewide, top 58%, 1,035 students, 59% FRL); Sparkman Middle School (math 18% / reading 53%, grade F, #81 of 257 statewide, top 33%, 859 students, 60% FRL); Sparkman High School (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #58 of 305 statewide, top 19%, 1,738 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 29% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 326 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $129k; list at $225k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Harvest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.