138 Bayside Ln · Harvest, AL 35773

$224,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2008 9,300 sqft lot Est $208k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

138 BAYSIDE LANE, TONEY AL 35773 - Incredible 2-story home with an open floor plan - This home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, LVP Flooring on main level - Outside features include a large rear yard, one car garage and near shopping and schools - This home is eligible for no-money down with Rural Development - Call for private showing!

Key facts

• 9,300 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2008

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 155 x 60; Living area approximately 1,500 square feet
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Subdivision: Carillo Bay

Exterior

• Parking: One-car garage facing front
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 2008; Frame construction
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Public water; Septic tank

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Two levels; No fireplaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (34.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Harvest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#27 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Madison County (rural): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #19 of 129 in AL (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Madison Cross Roads Elementary School (math 14% / reading 48%, grade F, #360 of 627 statewide, top 58%, 1,035 students, 59% FRL); Sparkman Middle School (math 18% / reading 53%, grade F, #81 of 257 statewide, top 33%, 859 students, 60% FRL); Sparkman High School (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #58 of 305 statewide, top 19%, 1,738 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 29% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 326 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $129k; list at $225k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,288 (34.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.00%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,500
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
139 Carillo Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,481 (-1%)	0mo	$228,000	$154	90
151 Carillo Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-4%)	3mo	$221,500	$153	82
159 Bayside Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,435 (-4%)	20mo	$199,900	$139	66
151 Bayside Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,704 (+14%)	10mo	$215,000	$126	59
188 Bayside Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+12%)	24mo	$224,000	$133	46
112 Springbok Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,652 (+10%)	19mo	$223,800	$135	44
305 Counterpoint Dr	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,667 (+11%)	17mo	$235,000	$141	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $109,040
• Equity at exit: $202,608

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.26×
• Total profit: $331,431
• Equity at exit: $436,931

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35773

• Home prices YoY: 28.8%
• Active inventory: 326
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,473 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,202/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $-210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,738

Max offer price $187,850

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-82	-5% $-146	+0% $-210	+5% $-273	+10% $-337
Rent	-10% $-326	-5% $-268	+0% $-210	+5% $-152	+10% $-93
Rate	-1.0pp $-96	-0.5pp $-153	base $-210	+0.5pp $-268	+1.0pp $-327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
165 Cloverbrook Dr Harvest, AL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,520	$1.25	45d	1	0.43mi
183 Cloverbrook Dr Harvest, AL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,373	$1.14	45d	1	0.44mi
321 Counter Point Dr Harvest, AL	3.0	2.5	2200	$1,506	$0.68	45d	1	0.46mi
198 Cloverbrook Dr Harvest, AL	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,375	$0.98	25d	1	0.49mi
674 Harvest Rd Harvest, AL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,850	$1.11	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $224,900 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $224,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,900 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,900 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $224,900 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    listed $224,900 Active
16. 2020-05-22
    soldstatus $129,000
17. 2020-04-15
    historical
18. 2020-04-05
    listed $129,900 Active
19. 2020-03-27
    historical
20. 2020-02-17
    listed $129,000
21. 2016-06-07
    soldstatus $411,000
22. 2016-03-10
    soldstatus $56,000
23. 2016-03-08
    soldstatus $56,000
24. 2015-10-21
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,202 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,202 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,675
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$1,202
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,414
• − Management: −$1,414
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$6,621
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,589
• After-tax cash flow: $-928/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 0102220
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $66,058
• Composite: 37.15/100
• National rank: #4483
• State rank: #19 of 129 in AL

Livability — Harvest

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #27
• US rank: #5986

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 30,710
• Population (ZIP): 13,977

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,086 people
• By 2030: 409,788 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 440,557 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 460,990 · +17.6%
• By 2075: 502,872 · +28.3%
• By 2100: 513,623 · +31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 17% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 44.7% · R 53.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.0pp toward D · 2008: -14.9pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+8.0 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+18.7 2008: R+14.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 149.14%
• Current HPI: 666.8602
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+275.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $224,900 VMLS
• 2020-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-15 Delisted — VMLS
• 2020-04-05 Listed $129,900 VMLS
• 2020-03-27 Delisted — VMLS
• 2020-02-17 Listed $129,000 VMLS
• 2016-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $411,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-08 Sold (MLS) $56,000 VMLS
• 2015-10-21 Listed $59,900 VMLS

Property tax history

+16.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,202 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.