209 Second St

Bieber, CA 96009

$125,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 148 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,324/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $273/mo
• Annual: $3,272/yr
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.35%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $479 of equity ($864 loan paydown + $-385 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#813 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Big Valley Joint Unified (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,113 of 1,400 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Lassen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lassen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $125k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.