209 Second St · Bieber, CA 96009

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1971 0.32 ac lot $95/sqft · 23% below area Est $162k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This a wonderful opportunity for an investor or for a family willing to put in some sweat equity! This charming property at 209 Second St. Bieber, CA - offers a unique ability to own a home in a peaceful, small-town setting. Nestled in the heart of Bieber, this residence combines rustic charm with comfortable living, perfect for those seeking tranquility and a close-knit community atmosphere. Located conveniently near local amenities, schools, and natural attractions, 209 Second St. is ideal for buyers looking for a serene lifestyle with easy access to essential services. Whether you're looking for a permanent residence or a weekend retreat, this property presents a fantastic opportunity in the scenic surroundings of Bieber, CA.

Key facts

• Scenic surroundings
• 0.32 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• PEACEFUL SMALL-TOWN SETTING
• SCENIC SURROUNDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#813 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Big Valley Joint Unified (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,113 of 1,400 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Lassen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $479 of equity ($864 loan paydown + $-385 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Lassen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $125k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.35%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,319
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -22.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $11,878
• Equity at exit: $34,382

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $46,958
• Equity at exit: $39,831

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96009

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,324 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $790/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $979

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 129 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 128 DOM
17. 2026-02-04
    price $125,000 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    This a wonderful opportunity for an investor or for a family willing to put in some sweat equity! This charming property at 209 Second St. Bieber, CA - offers a unique ability to own a home in a peaceful, small-town setting. Nestled in the heart of Bieber, this residence combines rustic charm with comfortable living, perfect for those seeking tranquility and a close-knit community atmosphere. Located conveniently near local amenities, schools, and natural attractions, 209 Second St. is ideal for buyers looking for a serene lifestyle with easy access to essential services. Whether you're looking for a permanent residence or a weekend retreat, this property presents a fantastic opportunity in the scenic surroundings of Bieber, CA.

18. 2026-01-22
    listed $155,000 Active 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    This a wonderful opportunity for an investor or for a family willing to put in some sweat equity! This charming property at 209 Second St. Bieber, CA - offers a unique ability to own a home in a peaceful, small-town setting. Nestled in the heart of Bieber, this residence combines rustic charm with comfortable living, perfect for those seeking tranquility and a close-knit community atmosphere. Located conveniently near local amenities, schools, and natural attractions, 209 Second St. is ideal for buyers looking for a serene lifestyle with easy access to essential services. Whether you're looking for a permanent residence or a weekend retreat, this property presents a fantastic opportunity in the scenic surroundings of Bieber, CA.

19. 1992-06-01
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $790 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$160/yr (+$13/mo · 20.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$790
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,271
• − Management: −$1,271
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,295
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$311
• After-tax cash flow: $2,962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Valley Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0605010
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $45,860
• Composite: 26.64/100
• National rank: #12589
• State rank: #1113 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bieber

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #813
• US rank: #22934

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment D+ Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bieber, CA
• Population (ZIP): 380

Population outlook (Lassen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,112 people
• By 2030: 26,732 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 25,536 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 23,262 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 18,620 · -31.3%
• By 2100: 14,679 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 28% Italian 5% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lassen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.0) · D 21.8% · R 75.8% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -34.2pp · 2024: -54.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.0 2020: R+51.5 2016: R+51.3 2012: R+39.8 2008: R+34.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Current HPI: 150.8107
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+177.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $125,000 SAOR
• 2026-01-22 Listed $155,000 SAOR
• 1992-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $790 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.